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Comment by hnarn | Hacker News Reader

If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of the regular flu. Why are people spreading these types of news and commenting on them like it's the end of days? We may yet see a severe pandemic in our time but I don't see anything indicating this would be it, especially not since lethality goes down with spread. The biggest concern so far people should have regarding this virus is what it's going to do to your portfolio seeing as the supply chain of half the companies in the world seems to be disrupted in the coming months.

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> If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of the regular flu.

That does not pass the smell test. According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were an estimated people 14.4 million cases of the flu for people 18-49 years old, of which 2,803 died. That's a fatality rate of 0.02%.

The latest fatality rates coming out China show a 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for that age group. Which is 10-20x higher.

It seems like you reached the 2-3x lethality factor by comparing against the flu's overall CFR of 0.1%, which includes a lot of elderly people.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

I think you're correct, so I apologize.

many people have beloved family members who are older than 60. even if you are young, the symptomatic infection can be very severe and disabling for a week or two. it's also extremely contagious.

> especially not since lethality goes down with spread

there is no guarantee of this

How is any of this different from seasonal flu? It's also potentially lethal for the older population and can also knock you out for a week or two. I'm not disputing that flu viruses are bad, I'm just pointing out that the mass hysteria that seems to be brewing is not based in facts.

Because the flu is simply much less lethal than this.

Well, even if it's only as bad as the flu, what we're talking about is "remember that thing that kills hundreds of thousands every year? We're now going to double that number for the foreseeable future". Unless of course we manage to stop it from spreading further (which seems unlikely at this point but possibly worth trying anyway.)

it's much, much deadlier and more contagious than the flu, there is hardly any research into treatment, no vaccine and no herd immunity. if this gets into serious exponential takeoff, which seems increasingly likely, we're talking about potentially millions of deaths. even if you're at low risk of death, you probably know a few people that aren't.

I don't know how you can rationalize "this was so bad that China cut off half the supply chains in the world" with "its just a flu bruh"

Except, for people who are older or have health problems, who might also read HN you mean ?

I have chronic Bronchitis and Asthma and am on biological drugs witch lower my immune system.

Had pneumonia last year, wasn't fun.

Somehow my portfolio is not high on my list of concerns.

I sympathize with your health concerns, but all things considered it's not much more of a threat than (unfortunately) seasonal flue is every year. And your point is exactly what I'm saying, in terms of health profile you are an outlier, but the hysteria visible online makes a reader think that this pandemic is somehow going to wipe out a majority of humanity.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), 15-20% of people infected require hospitalization. If this becomes widespread, it will overwhelm the US healthcare system. If that happens, anyone who needs urgent care for any reason, has fewer resources available to help them.

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