That 1970s Feeling | Hacker News Reader

That 1970s Feeling

project-syndicate.org

57 pointshhs10 comments

Funny, I was just thinking yesterday "I wonder if what's happening in this cycle will get its own word when we look back on it from some distance, like 'stagflation'"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Stock market melt-up is one I've heard.

The “central bankers’ bubble” is another one I’ve heard.

melt-up is a non-new synonym for a short-term bubble.

I wonder how a Just In Time world will impact a "supply side" shock. Normally I'm a bit of a critic of it for making it too easy to cut all the margin out of the supply chain, but once a normal situation resumes and random chunks of the world aren't under quarantine, I wonder if there wouldn't be a radically different response to a supply shock. While there are still some limitations on how fast things can move around (container ships, for instance, introduce certain unavoidable latency), the logistics world of 2020 is very different from the logistics world of 1970. The flow of supply and demand indicators through the economy of 2020 isn't going to be like 1970.

(Note I'm not saying this will be no problem, or that it is certain disaster; I'm wondering about how it will be different in any manner or direction.)

Author of this doesn't know how to use Excel and published incorrect results which were used as austerity justification by the politically motivated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt#Metho...

That was quite an interesting read... I was astonished by how awful their response to the criticism was: https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff...

Personally, that just killed his credibility.

Oh, the author was one of those two? Nope, no credibility; not because of a mistake (though such sloppiness would qualify for a credibility loss), but because of how they handled criticism, as linked by sibling comment.

The criticism of an unrelated study by Prof. Rogoff were politically motivated as well. No one is free of political bias. And no study, especially in economics is beyond criticism. As the article notes, the authors freely acknowledged and also responded to criticisms which they believed were unwarranted. But all that is not related to the points addressed in the article. As it happens, Ken Rogoff's accomplishments, which are considerably more extensive than the brief bio at the end of the article, are more than sufficient to rebut unrelated criticism. Regardless of your political views, discounting or ignoring Ken Rogoff's views on economic matters is a mistake.

I was waiting to read more about "how the next global recession may be unlike the last two" and then... didn't find much actual detail beyond "prices could go up a lot"? E.g., prices on what precisely, or other information that would be useful if anyone's wanting to prepare.

The "get rid of the tarrifs with China" conclusion also feels very disconnected from the rest, since if the supply chain could be broken and there's nothing from China to buy, the tarrifs are the least of anyone's worries?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com