Addition: No, I "trust" the reported numbers from Italy. I think they are missing a lot of mild cases that are not being reported or tested. When I checked a few days ago, it looked like of the tests that South Korea ran, only 5% or so were positive. So, their infected numbers are probably more accurate. The death rate may still be higher, because we don't know how many in the infected population as of today will recover. One could for example calculate the death rate as [Number_of_deaths.today]/[Number_infected.x_days_ago] I don't really know the "x" to use in this circumstance, but just using 7 days (since a lot of deaths occurred in 7-9 days from positive detection), the death rate may be about a factor of 2 higher. So about 1% overall. I have been looking at so many different sources in the last few days, I can't seem to find the sites where I got the numbers for the above calculations from. So I might be off by a bit.