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drocer88

Looks the coming recession the editors at HN have been front paging for the last few years might actually happen.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624

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If you predict a recession every year you will eventually be right

And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.

Credit where credit is due:

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."

-A. Gary Shilling

I’ve predicted twelve of the last three recessions!

I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term.

The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.

No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.

Long term too. The bottom 50% of Americans lost all their wealth and went into debt to live since then.

The bottom 50% has almost no wealth to begin with.

14% inflation wasn't doing to bottom 50% any favors.

We've got pretty good evidence they were correct to criticize supply-side economics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

I don't think "the editors" are to blame here, but point taken on predicting 6 out of the last 1 recessions.

Blame for what? They were very likely right (let's see how this unfolds, to be sure).

Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed.

All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.

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