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Comment by llamataboot | Hacker News Reader

The US really really /really/ needs to get out in front of this. We have the lowest per-capita testing rate in the world, there are likely already significant outbreaks in Seattle, Santa Clara co, NYC, and DC. Probably elsewhere. We are literally like 12 days behind and can see into our future.

If this virus does indeed require such intense hospital resources (as in Wuhan and now Northern Italy) letting it spike is just madness. Must put into place heavy restrictions now.

We don't need travel lockdowns, but public events, movie theatres, etc should be closed, and businesses should be highly urged to allow workers to WFH if nec and/or try furloughs with public money (ha! good luck...)

In any case, just waiting until we see a spike in cases and then trying to get behind it seems like so much madness.

Large sports events? Museums? sigh

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We have the lowest testing rate because the CDC made some big mistakes early on.

1) the CDC told all the other labs to stand down and wait for the CDC test kit

2) the CDC refused permission to test except under very narrow conditions

3) the CDC test kit was defective due to being over engineered, and delayed availability during a very critical period

Now that we're behind the exponential growth curve, any measures that politicians can take are going to be much less effective.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/after-missteps-cd...

Which of those would you have cited if you didn't have the benefit of hindsight?

KISS (keep it simple, stupid)

Why did CDC depart from this and make a 3 part test (1 part of which had nothing to do with this virus) when there was already tests available they could just copy?

During an emergency, you don't screw around and try to come up with the perfect test. You don't exercise turf rights over other concerns.

Well,

The only thing that be called reasonable statistic is the number of deaths and that hasn't spiked - I hate to say - yet. It's possible hospitals are even missing those, it's a big country. And it's a dispersed country so things might not spread as quickly.

But other, what you say. Stopping large public events and doing mass testing seems crucial. South Korea seems to have gotten a handle on their infection process at the moment things are out-of-hand in Italy. South Korea has done mass testing for a while.

It takes 6-41 days for covid-19 to kill, with 14 days being the median. The death rate is going to lag behind the cases of infection by a few days.

Yeah but deaths are still the most unambiguous, the thing that inadequate testing and controls are least likely to hide. A lot of hidden infection would appear at least some death - several days I pointed to mortality rates as the biggest marker for areas where infection would spike. I am not happy to be right about this since this awful however you cut it but there you are.

SXSW, South by Southwest music festival was cancelled (sadly so, but good), amongst other events, but definitely not enough yet.

It's absolutely astounding that Disney Land and world are still open.

Disney Land and Disney Sea here in Tokyo closed down. So did USJ in Osaka.

Was referring to the US as the parent commenter was focused on that.

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