Covid-19 reduces economic activity, which reduces pollution, which saves lives | Hacker News Reader

Covid-19 reduces economic activity, which reduces pollution, which saves lives

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29 pointsfortran7715 comments

Frankly I find this a little bit nauseating. If a plague wipes out an integer percentage of humanity then Earth will be less polluted,... yay?

What those satellite pictures are showing may be marginally cleaner air. But it’s also millions of people out of work and an economy stalled and not producing for its populous.

That roughly equates to people lives significant worse, not better.

I posted this link, but I have the same reservations you do. Tyler Cowen was discussing this on his blog.

> What's the lesson here? It seems clearly incorrect and foolhardy to conclude that pandemics are good for health. Again I emphasize that the effects calculated above are just the health benefits of the air pollution changes, and do not account for the many other short- or long-term negative consequences of social and economic disruption on health or other outcomes; these harms could exceed any health benefits from reduced air pollution. But the calculation is perhaps a useful reminder of the often-hidden health consequences of the status quo, i.e. the substantial costs that our current way of doing things exacts on our health and livelihoods.

I’m not sure that’s a valid way to do the calculation. A net benefit is not a cost. A net benefit is a benefit.

A proper analysis looks at costs and benefits together and calculates the net result.

There are inherent damages (externalities) to the way that we do things, but the correct analysis is to examine the substitute ways to do things and what their relative (increased) costs are in exchange for decreases damages.

So you can say we can reduce A amount of pollution, which is expected to save B lives, at an increased cost of C, which drives D amount of people into unemployment or poverty.

Looking at one thing without examining the overall effect on the whole system is pretty pointless, even inhumane to a point.

Thinking through the long term implications of this disaster is interesting because it might be a catalyst for a lot of positive change, especially in the U.S. Hopefully we can flatten the curve and prevent huge mortalities before things spiral, but I can't see how the aftermath this doesn't lead to an immediate demand for universal healthcare in the U.S.

Beyond that, a lesson in listening to and respecting scientific warnings about climate change and other existential threats we'd rather not think about. Lessons about not blindly listening to economic advisers who want numbers to go up and, hopefully, lessons about how humans can revert to human kindness and decency when faced with real issues. I think of the stories from NYC about so many people helping each other on 9/11 - we need to become real communities again to work through this together.

I do hope the push to WFH helps normalize remote work - that’s something I’m optimistic about.

I think it’s a stretch to say a virus pandemic will be the catalyst for climate policy change but stranger things have happened.

The voting cohort that votes for politicians that don’t support climate change mitigation policy have the highest mortality rate from the pandemic.

If this pandemic doesn’t lead to universal healthcare and climate change policy because citizens have a change in heart, it might occur because enough of those opposed to these ideas die.

Not intended to be morbid or gratuitous, simply an observation.

Ummm...I don't think so. The Marin Chrunchy-Moms, who are falling over from the measles, and will not get their kids vaccinated, are sure to have a high mortality rate. And they certainly do support climate change mitigation.

We’ll find out soon enough.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/epgkb7/if-your-aging-pare...

I think that the world (and specifically the US) had been worse ever since 9/11. With lack of privacy through the Patriot act and horrible airplane experience I wouldn't say that the long term effects of 9/11 was good.

Reducing economic activity kills people too.

You do realize that the economy isn't just a game of moving multi-colored pieces of paper around

The Federal Reserve's trillion-dollar injection into the Treasury market yesterday would seem to indicate the direct opposite

Well, he did specify "just".

The economy is the method by which humans live a life other than that of animals.

Moving multi-colored pieces of paper is a small part of that process, but it is highly visible because it is near the top of the stack.

also reduces physical activity and social contact, which are not good for life expectancy

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