1) Why are you assuming it will be 280 Million and not stop at around 59 Million like before?
2) Why choose a number like 6% when it's currently at 3.8%?
3) Why are we experiencing so much more panic over this virus?
2) Why choose a number like 6% when it's currently at 3.8%?
3) Why are we experiencing so much more panic over this virus?
Italy's CFR is over 7%. They've implemented triage in Lombardy where they won't even consider someone over the age of 65, because they're out of beds and ventilators and want to ensure patients with the best chances for survival make it.
Amongst those with symptoms, this virus has an 80% hospitalization rate.
This virus is a test, and we're going to be found severely unprepared.
Give me a moment and I'll go dig up my citations.
Edit: I was wrong about the hospitalization rate. It appears to be 20% [1]
One source cites a CFR of 5% in Italy as of two days ago. [2]
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/people-have-been-...
[2] https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-...
Or perhaps the 80% figure was patients within a certain age range.
I read that there is some triage but this seems a lot more extreme than I imagined.
Let's assume that the current coronavirus has an R0 of just 2 (estimates vary, most higher than this). Perhaps it is less, but for the sake of argument lets say it's 2.
1.6^10 = ~110
2^10 = 1024 (so ~9x higher)
That's with just 10 steps of transmission. So assuming the R0 of 2 is correct this will spread much faster.
Now consider that people do not seem to show symptoms until at least 5 days after they've been exposed (by some estimates, even longer, like 9+ days). Assuming they are contagious at least part of that time, they are unknowingly spreading this.
As others have mentioned add into it the fact that people who have been exposed to various flu viruses can have some immunity to new ones.
Ignoring all that, just look what's actually happening on the ground in Italy and China.
Now if we run out of hospital beds and we have to pick/choose who lives/dies including car wrecks, and other emergencies the deaths could double or triple.
Corona has higher mortality rate in most age groups, including in young people. People who do need ICU stay there for weeks. Unknown number of people have reduced lung capacity after for long.
3. Because it's much worse than the 2009 flu on almost every metric. If we treat them the same, there will be two orders of magnitude more deaths.
GP appears to be using 2% mortality rate