Flash doesn't run on iPhone and it is often slow and buggy on anything but Windows. I bet that Apple, Google and browser developers will support standards-based alternatives. We can see this happening in the original post.
Flash works fine on OSX in my experience. A good portion of our startup depends on it, and my cofounders code on Macbooks.
If only Apple were to create some hook for WebKit/Sproutcore that allowed iPhone web applications to do something with finger touches (this is difficult because of the pinch gestures require mouse/t-pad tracking - but maybe they can have a JS API hook to toggle/disable pinching for webapps)