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Comment by dageshi | Hacker News Reader

Do we know if the virus does worse in warmer climates? I ask because I'm still amazed that the numbers in south east asia are so low, Thailand and Vietnam had huge amounts of Chinese tourists over Chinese new year and yet case wise they seem really low. Whereas europe which has a much colder climate right now is doing much worse.

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We don't have enough evidence to say conclusively.

MERS, which is related to COVID, is endemic in the Middle East, doesn't seem to be seasonal.

People shouldn't make preparations based on the idea that this will go away in the summer.

I've read several articles on this over the last few days. The consensus is that we don't know yet if heat and/or humidity reduce transmission of Covid-19 in any meaningful way. But it is certainly possible it will be suppressed in warmer or more humid weather as is the case for many similar viruses.

It's probable that the virus transmits less readily in warmer and wetter places. By how much however, is a key question. Unless the R0 becomes less than zero, then countries still should take precautions to control their outbreaks, especially in densely populated cities.

R0 cannot be less than zero, unless a patient can actually cure other patients.

Less than one is enough for the virus prevalence to decrease.

See Figure 3: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

It is clear that humidity has an influence, and temperature may have an influence.

I am hopeful that the tropical nations of the world will be spared the worst of this particular disease, but only time will tell.

I've heard they aren't really testing, from a Malaysian who has been following it. And most of the cases verified there are expats. Haven't done my own research though, so grain of salt.

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