Please don't use HN to spread misinformation that could cause massive numbers of deaths.
>CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been: 22,000-55,000
That's 4,400 deaths per month in the United States on the low estimate. 11,000 on the high.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
Total worldwide deaths according to the CDC so far for covid-19 is equal to 7426 since the beginning in let's say December to give it the worst rates. That equals 1865 deaths per month.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus...
>5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually (influenza)
That's 54,000 deaths per month for the whole world.
Covid-19 is currently at 3.5% of the worldwide deaths of influenza with 1/4th of the year over.
Hopefully this is not considered misinformation that will cause massive numbers of deaths.
Note in your first source that the CDC estimates _36 to 51 million_ flu illnesses this season _in the US_. I'm not sure why your third source says "5 million cases".
The flu doesn't originate from a single point geographically every year, as it is already embedded in communities globally.
So, even if the current numbers we have for coronavirus infections are off by an order of magnitude, it is easy to reason that once this coronavirus reaches spread at the levels of the flu (i.e., 30-50 million infections _in the US alone_), the death numbers are likely to be much much higher than the seasonal flu.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200303/Analysis-One-sure...
>Lipkin noted that because cases observed early in an epidemic are the most severe, early mortality estimates tend to be high. As more information comes out, the death rates are likely to fall. "We're probably six months out from having a good picture, and when we do I'd guess the mortality will drop dramatically," he said.
The new virus can be contained, at least could have been though perhaps it's too late for that. The only thing keeping the deaths so low to this point has been the containment efforts.
The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy.
It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are.
to be fair it certainly can and does. The 2017/2018 influenza pandemic was probably the worst one in a decade, with 35 million infections, 700 000 hospitalizations and 60k deaths, and people for a while were treated in tents and a state of emergency was declared in Alabama, and Southern California and Texas had to turn away patients.
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
And I'd actually also disagree that this is 'nowhere near as bad' as COVID-19. In countries like Germany or South Korea the death toll with high rates of testing appears to be somewhere in the 0.2 - 1% range. That's something I would argue is a difference in quantity rather than quality, with the dangers lying in the aggregate disease burden and vulnerable populations in particular.
It seems like the nature of the overloading is different.
In particular, from those reports you mentioned, it doesn't seem like staff had to decide which patients to treat or not.
With COVID-19 we are hearing reports of some patients not being treated because there is not enough capacity (either staff or equipment) and so the death rates can be very high as many people receive inadequate treatment.
From the descriptions there and coming out of Italy it should be clear that COVID-19 is much worse than the worst flu we've seen in a decade.
The only thing keeping deaths low to this point is that it isn't as widespread.
Nevertheless, it's not a flu.
mis•in•for•ma•tion ► n. Wrong information; false account or intelligence. n. Untrue or incorrect information. n. Information that is incorrect.
I disagree.
Even if a statement is technically correct it can be designed to (or can accidentally) mislead people into coming to the wrong conclusion.
From the start you were advocating the conclusion that this "will do just the same as any other flu" and then compared total deaths to date in support of that conclusion.
The conclusion is misinformed because the comparison is not valid.
For it to be a valid comparison, as others have stated in the thread, we need to compare the projected cases and deaths NOT the current deaths as you have done.
Stating the numbers the way you have, uncritically and without the relevant context, is misinformation because it is misleading.
My point is that you should compare projected number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 to the flu.
If you do, it's clear that this is not just another flu.
I'm not sure what aspect of that will lead to overwhelmed hospital systems and massive deaths.
The advice I've been hearing is that
- if you have COVID-19 symptoms, self isolate (and lots of areas are moving to 'shelter in place' style restrictions in any case)
- if you are in an at-risk population, self isolate
- if you've been in contact with COVID-19, or travelled, self isolate
There is some concern over when to test, mostly because there is a shortage of kits in some places.
Few deaths in past months does not mean few deaths in the coming months, because infections spread exponentially.
We have no defense against COVID-19, so until herd immunity becomes a thing by social distancing please flatten the curve to keep our health system from being overwhelmed.
Influenza death rate on known cases is about 0.1% or less. Best estimates for Covid-19 are from SK and, to my knowledge, are around 0.6%. But the ICU fills up quick and then death rate spikes.
Without those statistics, you're comparing apples to oranges when you point to the total number of deaths per year for both diseases.