It also depends on the growth rate of the number of tests administered. If you exponentially grow the number of tests given (which one could argue is the case in many areas), the absolute number of “confirmed cases” will also look exponential.

If you start with a hypothesis that this virus is in wide global circulation already, all this testing is doing is confirming “yup, people have the virus!”.

Only way to prove or disprove the hypothesis that the virus is widespread is large scale testing of a truly random subset of the entire population. Last I checked that isn’t happening anywhere in the United States and possibly elsewhere.

Why is proving that hypothesis important? Because if true it means the severity of this virus is dramatically less than our limited data suggests. If true, most of the rather draconian measures we are taking are pointless.

If false, god help us all I guess...