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If you invest the extra cost and complexity for a redundant supply chain capable of surviving a black swan event like COVID-19, but the rest of the world doesn't, and the black swan event causes a recession with massive unemployment, does it matter? The bottleneck is now consumer spending, not your ability to produce your products.

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As others have said in other threads, pandemics are emphatically NOT black swan events. Making this assumption reveals a fundamentally flawed mental model which is broken for the same reason global supply chains are -- its time constant is far too short to account for major disruptive events that have extremely high probably of occurring and have well known effects on societies, and often well known methods for prevention and management. Earthquakes, and pandemics are not black swan events, and for civil engineers and state level actors neither are volcanic eruptions.

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