Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically.
One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.
One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.
Because if true, combine that with the facts that
- 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1]
- median age of deaths is 80 years old [2]
Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one.
[1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lomba...
[2] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...
Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths.
1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP).
2) I’ve read the ISS report cover to cover and yes, nearly ALL deaths are due to 1) age greater than 70, 2) 75% showing 2 (two) or more per-existing conditions with a staggering 99% showing 1 (one) or more pre-existing conditions. Let’s not forget the above comment (HAP or other hospital acquired infections from SARS-Cov2, Influenza, whatever).
3) Seeing a death count YOY would be beneficial here indeed.
I don’t think ANYBODY will be able to answer my initial question here.
There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to:
1) such capacity simply does not exist
2) Italians have been under quarantine and when they weren’t they were drinking coffee and not lining up for tests.
3) the time of test > result trajectory > reported data is impossible
4) such high throughout testing capacity simply does not exist
Where are these magic numbers coming from? :)
Germany is able to conduct more than 160,000 tests per week. I do not know the numbers for Italy, but why shouldn't they be able to reach that number over 2-3 weeks?
Germans are willingly being tested, there process, order, proactive testing. In Italy everyone is 1) quarantined for the past 2 weeks and 2) didn’t even give a crap about this prior to the quarantine.
Italy is triaging, out of hospital space, vastly over estimating numbers, and probably using models with some accuracy to report their numbers. Unless someone can PROVE this otherwise.
Their death rate is what it is due to a very elderly population, with 2 or more co-morbidities, in understaffed and overwhelmed hospitals full of chaos, and infection.
See https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6 that graphs shows the number of tampons per day.
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_5 total tampons: 233222. The source is the Italian Ministry of Health.
Also in Italy, unlike what happens in other countries, all deceased people positive to the test are classified as "Covid deaths", regardless of the simultaneous presence of other serious diseases.
It is already compared. On
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I...
you can easily see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Is_COVID-19_like_a_flu%3F...
and it's not flu and the number of people who can't breathe, have fever and die is orders of magnitude higher.
However, this assumes the current surge deaths are 100% SARS-Cov2 confirmed infections.
They aren’t. At least not 100%
Assumption can be made “atypical, bad flu season” but safer bet is on “newly discovered virus out of China that did x and y and z damage over there.”
While both theories are just that, theories. There is no empirical data which PROVES x-cases and y-surge is directly related to a confirmed SARS-Cov2 pathogen confirmed by RT-PCR and antibody test.
The Italian data is wrong period. Why or how is another debate.
Good to hear. Is there an official statement on that?
> Also, there is no guessing game as to who is affected by the virus.
In what sense do you mean? No guessing about what?
What?
>They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.
So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2.
Yeah... no.
This is not a game of assumptions.
Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so.
Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.
Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have?
Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up.
As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on.
We are all speculating btw.
Italians are triaging, so they have to quickly sort the cases. They have to sacrifice precision and allow for some false positives.
Otherwise, it would have to be some OTHER virus not known to humanity appearing at the same time, behaving unlike the viruses we know and watch every year, magically appearing exactly in the community where you verified the existence of the one for which you test.