Something thats flown under the radar of this is the new “Families First Coronavirus Response Act” which provides 12 weeks of “paid leave for those affected by Covid 19”.
Most (90%) companies will be bankrupt by week 3 or 4, therefore most are now contemplating just declaring bankruptcy now to avoid any further bleed.
It’s easy to write laws such as this, but where does the money for this 12-weeks come from?
I don't understand this. Why would they file for bankruptcy if their office is overflowing with cases?
Even if peak unemployment is similar, the recover is likely to be snappier.
The heat of the forest fore opens the pine cones, and there is new growth.
Meanwhile, not all countries were impacted by the great depression, Spain being one of the countries not impacted because of the isolated economy at the time.
Another reason the Great Depression got worse than a normal depression was that the Hoover administration unwisely decided to make money and credit less available during the crash. Today's policy response is more about throwing money at people (sometimes just at the politically connected, sometimes fairly). One can and should question many specifics (the response is not super coherent) but at least it is the opposite of fiscal and monetary tightening.
Another reason the Great Depression stayed so very bad for so very long was as a consequence the FDR administration's unprecedented intervention into the economy. I don't mean Social Security, either, I mean things like the National Recovery Administration, which explicitly sought to turn the US into a planned economy, with minimum and maximum prices for everything, run by local politically-connected cartels with their own police powers.
When the NRA was declared unconstitutional, its practices were shifted into other places. A few of the more ridiculous practices led by other agencies are still around. For instance, the Supreme Court only killed the USDA's Raisin Board in 2015 when a raisin farmer objected to them seizing 89,000 tons of raisins (30% of his crop) to give away for free in school lunches. (The USDA of that time was also great at encouraging the big agribusiness factory farming and pushing out what small farmers were still able to operate.)
None of this planned-economy stuff is on the table today — not in the US, not with this administration anyway, and not with the current US senate. There's an outside shot of a fully nationalized health system if Bernie Sanders wins and Democrats take the Senate, and that's the most ambitious plan, and even if we assume the taxes to fund it were quite stultifying indeed, it's unlikely to be as harmful. No one is coming for our raisins.
Today, everyone's quit the gold standard and the forex situation is very different, blunting impacts of wild currency movements. US and European banks are not at risk of bank runs (as they are stabilized by general government policy and specific interventions), and whatever chaos we see, a ~35% contraction in the supply of USD is not on the table. If we are beset by deflation it's going to be puny in comparison.
It is worth mentioning that the Depression was also associated with major breakdowns in international trade, in part due to lots of tariffs. The bad news is we're tariff-happy again, but not as bad as Smoot-Hawley for now? The protectionist impulse bears monitoring.
And I'll finally clarify that we will still have a recession, and it might be pretty nasty. It's just not going to be Great Depression bad where we can't recover for a decade, not with just what's happened so far.