USO long dated calls. It's $1.76 a share for $5 strike price on Jan 2022. That's a 36% increase from the current share price of $4.99. The 52 week high is $13.86. I can't imagine the current oil war will continue for another 2 years.
You might already know this but that is why USO can lose value over time (the opposite was true when oil was higher). So careful with the timing.
Basically you need the virus situation to abate, along with OPEC price wars to end. And it needs to happen very soon (check the spread between front month and next month oil futures).
Case in point: Look at natural gas. We've been in a gas glut for a decade plus+ (https://pages.etflogic.io/?ticker=UNG for example, https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1 ). Big infrastructure builds and special cryo tanks are everywhere. Gas has never recovered from its 2008 peak... The same has played out and is playing out in crude.
2) will demand for oil pick up? there are a lot of business hurting bad now, and lots more shuttering. the work-remote thing is out of the bag, and remote work for office types may just be a thing for here on out.
If you're risk adverse the $2 calls Jan 21st, 2022 are $3.35. Required move to break even is 9.91%. It dropped 50% MTD. I don't need a full recovery, just a minimum of 10% over the next 2 years.
Misleading... Sure breakeven is 10% if you assume all-else-equal. Your path to profitability is path dependent. If it moved 10% tomorrow, you would probably be hard-pressed to make any money considering spreads and other trading costs. You really need a bigger move to breakeven in a short amount of time.