Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.
Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.
It's only "5x" the flu (you say so, I didn't look it up) BECAUSE everything is locked down. If we continued to live and work as usual hospitals would be overcrowded (they already are in italy, spain and some parts of france), which means a bicycle accident, a car crash, a bad fall = you'd die because no one could take care of you. In Italy they had to call the army to get more body bags and more people to carry the dead out, NY is already running out of space to store dead people.
You can't just look at low numbers due to aggressive lock downs, project them in your imaginary world and draw conclusions while ignoring all the side effects.
The system collapses in this scenario as well.
I don’t have a real answer, but this event is helping discuss interesting and difficult questions.
If I was over 70 y.o., I would think that I would be willing to die to prevent my grandchildren from experiencing the great depression.
Luckily the calculation is far less shitty than that. Contrary to what folks claim, the reducing in fatalities from automobile accidents and from dramatically lowered pollution outweighs suicides and other economic reasons for people to die. This lockdown is a dramatic net positive for human lives and significantly reduces the risk of death from many sources.