The New York Times Releases Its Dataset of U.S. Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
nytco.com
nytco.com
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/bgruber/zip2fips/master/zi...
ZIP/postal codes are generally smaller (in the county I live in there are almost a hundred ZIP codes). I'm not sure they're even guaranteed to be entirely within one county either. We tend to think of ZIP codes as boundaries but they're actually delivery routes (which if you squint can be converted into boundaries by joining the properties that those routes serve together).
You might be interested in this article: https://carto.com/blog/zip-codes-spatial-analysis/
(I have suffered at the hands of zip-codes-as-geographic-entities)
To directly answer your question, it is not uncommon for zipcodes to span county boundaries. And there are even a handful that span more than one state: https://gis.stackexchange.com/questions/53918/determining-wh...
To the broader question of why zip codes can be lacking for geospatial analysis, here's a real-world situation:
https://theconversation.com/how-zip-codes-nearly-masked-the-...
Here's a more broader essay from CartoDB: https://carto.com/blog/zip-codes-spatial-analysis/
Now for an address, I can geocode it up.
At the very least, if you do just need point-level info, you can get the centroids of the county shapes.
Check out ZCTA crosswalk in US census.
I don't see enough people making this point: the young will be very vulnerable if left untreated, and you can't treat e.g. the entire state of NY with 3,800 ICU beds plus however many the wonderful people in the Army Corps of Engineer can put together in a pinch.
It's not like young people are going to recover at home from their nasty case of pneumonia. With no ventilators and no medical staff, the mortality rate will markedly increase.
Why are you pointing out "the young" here?
Some people are pushing a counter-narrative that youngs aren't invincible. Which is also true. 0.1% death rates doesn't mean zero deaths. A higher number will be hospitalized, and as hospitals become overwhelmed that means (a) quality of care will be degraded and death rates will increase somewhat, and (b) any youngs in a bed comes at the direct expense of an elderly in a bed.
But if you are claiming that this disease is not mainly dangerous to the elderly, no, that is false, the deaths and hospitalizations are hugely weighted to the elderly and are quite low for young cohorts.
Yes, it is important that everyone minimize contacts as much as possible. For some reason people love to really harp on this point with the youngs. I didn't go to florida for spring break, it was my boomer parents who did (or rather, were planning on going this summer and complained nonstop that Florida state parks closed and cut them off). Churches are still open in many states spreading disease. Boomers are still going to Home Depot and buying their home improvement goods. A lot of boomers aren't taking this seriously either but nobody chooses to bring that up.
There are lots of changes that need to be made by everyone, but younger people are one of the primary targets of casual/unthinking ageism in this country. Avocado toast and all that.
Focusing the blame on this onto the young is no more correct, helpful, or productive than focusing the blame on the Chinese, and I suspect is coming from most of the same media sources.
It is worth pointing out that home-improvement stores were specifically exempt from the order to close businesses in several European countries. This is probably partly because those stores sell gardening products, and villagers need to be able to plant their vegetables now. However, the expectation on the part of public health authorities is presumably that that these stores remaining open, like supermarkets, will still not prevent the infection curve from flattening over the lockdown period.
Right, because the mortality rate for people under intensive care is skewed towards the elderly / people with underlying health conditions because they can't weather the ICU storm.
My point is that data is irrelevant for the scenario in which people go without intensive care. We have no idea how deadly COVID-19 will be then (or at least I haven't seen any data on those cases)
There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly.
Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. If you think it is so easy, feel free to go become a billionaire in the financial markets and donate the money to help with the cause.
Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible.
I'm not sure about that. Back in January, it was surely not irresponsible to get people worried about a pandemic. China is often criticized for suppressing online fear-mongering. Climate change activists are praised for it. Fear motivates people. It might not be the most rational motivation but neither is passively believing everything will continue as normal. This idea that the world is full of gullible idiots and that "us" smart people have to be careful what we say in case they act on it is arrogant. Facts online are often self-correcting, as you can see right here with people immediately challenging his claim.
> The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do.
I never stated otherwise. And I'm not asking anyone to model anything. I'm just saying we'll be over capacity at a near point in the future. That seems like a pretty defensible extrapolation, but would love to hear how that's not the case.
> Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over.
Why? This is the world we live in currently. What you call "gloom and doom" others would call being cautious.
> There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly.
Ideas. Let's hope they come to fruition. In the meantime, let's not kid ourselves about the risk to the non-elderly.
> Modeling the future is incredibly difficult.
Again irrelevant. I never claimed otherwise.
> If you think it is so easy
I don't think it's easy
> Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible.
I'm not "spreading fear". I'm debating an issue with most analyses currently being done in that they don't apply to the overcapacity scenario. And I disagree that's an irresponsible argument to make. Indeed, I can't see how turning a deaf ear to this most reasonable extrapolation that we'll soon be over capacity isn't the most irresponsible of the two.
Can't you? Cuomo seems pretty optimistic that once they get their 30,000 ventilators they'll be able to handle the peak.
I don't think the critique was of self-learning or bootcamps. It was a critique of a certain sort of cringe-worthy self-promotion.
And not just cringe-worthy. Spreading information based upon a cursory analysis of some CSV files without any training or experience in epidemiology, public health, public communications, etc. seems... irresponsible.
Also, off-topic, but most of my peers at university taught themselves how to program years before starting college -- typically in middle/early high school. And I mean actually taught themselves, from books and zine tutorials, not 'attended a formal course of instruction that was offered by a venture-backed firm instead of a formal course of instruction at a traditional university'. I guess times have changed, but the characterization of university students in CS as 'not self-taught programmers' is definitely the opposite of my experience. You came into the CS degree knowing how to program and learned how to do CS. And the characterization of "anything not university" as "self-taught" -- even formal courses of instruction that cost five figures -- is even more strange.
But SEOd medium posts have different reach potential than a facebook comment/phone call with friends/family. That's kind of the whole point of them.
Now, if a total non-expert had come out of nowhere with an analysis that contradicted the public health establishment, definitively showed that the danger was massively overblown, and was right, that would be one thing. But this medium post was incorrect in its conclusion, quite confident in its conclusion, and advised courses of action that would put many people in danger (such as reopening schools).
I'm also not sure that distinguishes the case I mentioned. It might also cause problems to assume some particular anecdote is true and representative.
Put more simply: a portfolio is a demonstration of your work. Anything you put out in public with your name on it is part of your portfolio. Obviously, don't put bad work in your public portfolio.
There's a reason you see very few serious data scientists publishing hot takes on their medium blogs -- it's a serious threat to your professional integrity and brand if you get it wrong. The only people I know & respect who are writing publicly about this topic have SME collaborators. (Of course, we're all playing with the data and talking about it in private with friends/coworkers over coffee.)
Self promotion specifically by spreading your amateur take on a health crisis seems a bit... immoral? Or at least the sort of thing that makes me question the candidate's judgement.
If you want to write publicly and in a formal way on this topic, get a subject matter expert to serve as a co-author. Anything less is more risky than it's worth, even from a purely selfish perspective.
Never mind that most of the people learning before uni did so from opportunity - they often had an engineer in the family or lived in a well-to-do area where such skills were apparent. (This magnified even further the older you are).
FWIW, I studied CS at a great cs uni (cal), and most of my peers were not self-taught. They still ended up at the same companies in the same positions as those who did ️.
Do you feel that your time there was wasted, and that you would have been better off attending a more focused bootcamp?
Arrogant and condescending don’t mean “wrong”. Djikstra (the king of accusations of arrogance), once pointed out that his native language has no word for “egghead”: https://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/EWD/transcriptions/EWD12xx/E..., principally because his native culture has no history of dismissing the educated. OP is using (I interpret) “bootcamp data scientists” as a shorthand for people who know far less than they think they do. That seems like a fair characterization, honestly: that’s entirely the philosophy behind bootcamps in the first place.
The idea behind them is that a four-year education in computer science is unnecessary for routine software development jobs, and one can be trained up to useful programming ability in a much shorter time (and less cost) than a full-blown university education takes. While it’s difficult to say how true this is, OP (I interpret) and I have both observed that bootcamp types seem to presume that a few-month intensive bootcamp experience actually does cover everything that a four-year degree does, and are often surprised (as well as defensive) when they come across something that their bootcamp didn’t prepare them for.
A close analogue would be a paralegal thinking they know the law better than lawyers or nurses thinking they know medicine better than doctors - not that they don’t know a lot, but there are a few things that, while not as commonly useful, do come up in actual practice that are important when they do.
I can run circles around some programmers with a CS degree.
CS degrees have always been an odd qualification, mainly because so much of it is completely unrelated to professional programming. You can get a high mark and still be unable to write a non-trivial program on your own.
When I originally started doing my Chemistry degree, we did huge amounts of lab work compared to the odd class or two CS students did.
You don't come out of uni a good progammer if you study CS, while you will come out of uni a good chemist, biologist or engineer.
And that really sums up the problem with this line of argument.
Do you think that this is untrue of boot camps?
And you're not going to be able to pass it because you can pontificate at length about compiler design or explain what a linked list is, but flunked the practicals because none of your code even compiled.
One guy I worked with a long time ago that we hired would give us all these huge lectures about the right DB design and when to use structs or classes. Had an opinion on the right way to do everything. But he didn't seem to be clearing many bugs, and then our company fired him after 3 months when they realized in his main project to get our dropbox-esque system talking with Word he'd written a whole 10 lines of code.
Could talk the talk, but couldn't walk the walk.
They represent an infinitesimal minority of the population. Most people, even people with CS degrees lack that discipline. At least the CS degree forces them to learn some fundamentals so that they can potentially understand what they're looking at and learn on the job, and demonstrates at least a moderate interest in the subject as a vocation.
In my experience most people who graduate from bootcamps (in general, some are better than others) are all about getting a job as soon as possible. They're expecting a 6 figure salary within a year, and are willing/able to put in 70+ hour weeks for a few months to get there. Not knocking that perspective, but they'll lack a lot of background outside of their very specific niche and will likely be less adaptable, particularly on any highly technical subjects where some level of theory is required.
IMO the wave of "Software Engineering" degrees that are trickling out into the universities are probably the ideal. Full 4 year accredited degree that focuses on practical software development and less on the theory and mathematics. Let the CS-degrees focus on research/academics in the fashion of schools of Arts and Science and leave the Engineering to the Engineering schools.
I had on average about one lab class a semester as a Biochemist, and on average one programming class a semester as a CS. You couldn't pass the CS class without being able to write code that worked and got more complicated by the end of the semester. By no means did this mean I (or anyone else) was an awesome software engineer by virtue of doing the degree, but I'd put almost anyone with a decent grade from my undergrad program into an entry level position. Same deal with Chemists or Biochemists. I've done a bunch of hiring and can say often bootcamp grads are less able to come up with a sophisticated answer to a problem they haven't studied before.
I say this also as a grad of Insight, a DS bootcamp of sorts.
People that claim to be data scientists after attending a coding boot camp must be clowns. I’ve never come across such a person. All the data scientists I know are smart self taught people, not people who went to a boot camp.
I've met smart data scientists and engineers who've gone to a bootcamp. People who are good and bad at their jobs come from a huge variety of backgrounds, and it's not helpful to look down on folks whose background is different than your own.
As I am sure you know, data science is a specialized field, one which draws upon a combination of statistics and computer science practices. You may be able to get some of the computer science practices down in a boot camp, but there's no way you're getting a boot camp to fill in the Bachelor's in statistics you need to be a good data scientist. Years of hard work and sincere dedication, however, I am sure can get you there.
In academia, science is the pursuit of postulating a falsifiable theory, then gathering facts to verify that theory, and then going through a process of intensive peer review that either confirms, dispels or amends those findings.
The formality of the academic process is a necessity. The value of scientific findings entirely depends on the trustworthiness of the research. That is, how were the results obtained, which line of thinking was followed, did the research exclude crucial biases, etc.?
The importance here is that academic research is used as a pillar to produce products and services we all use in daily life. For instance, if you need a hip replacement, you want to be sure that prosthetic was designed based on rigorous scientific findings and studies that can vouch for safety and comfort.
The difference then with "data scientist" is that they often they don't apply the same rigorous research practices. It's easy to pick a dataset and bang off visualizations; it's a different story to actually come up with relevant questions, assert the quality of the data at hand and publish your findings towards a community of domain experts who are actually able to review your findings.
One needs in-depth domain knowledge to do that. Good data scientists will understand this limitation. They often work in a specific domain in a supporting capacity: bringing technical skills and capabilities to domain experts that don't have those skills.
Then there are those who purport to practice data science while grokking datasets, creating visualisations and cobbling a blogpost together at the end of the day. That's when you need to be really wary of what they publish, even if the bigger picture contains truthiness.
Hence why I have extremely mixed feelings about what https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo is doing.
To be sure, the core points of what he's telling are in line with what domain experts are telling us. But the extreme number juggling is quite mind bending. Moreover, the man is not a domain expert. He's an entrepreneur who happens to know how to write viral blogposts such as "how to deliver your funny speech" and "How to become the best in the world at something". What he does is anything but scientific. And so, even though he's making a heartfelt plea heard by many, one should be careful to not take the precise details in his pieces at face value.
At the moment, we all are victims of our own confirmation bias. Each day yields another data point, and given our desperate state, we want to see trends that confirm improvement, a probability that one will survive this, low mortality and so on. The reality is that we only have so few datapoints and it's still far too soon to make conclusive assertions about how this will pan out for the world at large and you in particular.
For all intents and purposes, there are authors who write similar massive viral pieces that may - and likely will - end up killing thousands of people inadvertently.
As I said, the core message is absolutely right, but his method - the way he packs his message with solid looking graphs and number juggling - is questionable. Sure, it gets the job done; whereas many others fail to push the very same message. But it's still a questionable tactic of convincing people.
Does it matter? Perhaps not. At the end of the day, he saved lives. Morality is a luxury presently. And yet, dismissing critical considerations outright equally opens the door to unintended consequences if we turn it into a habit each time someone is purported to have saved lives.
I'm not saying random data science blogs aren't often wrong. But you've probably been burned just as often by publish science and simply haven't realized it. And at least the data science blogs aren't behind expensive paywalls, aren't couched in meaningless vernacular, and present the code/data for reproducing their results, none of which can be said for a lot of science these days.
Open science and open access are important movements as to the relationship between publishers and academic research.
However, that debate doesn't negate my point as to citizen or data science.
For all the discussion about paywalls and the use of vernacular, the same timeless critical considerations need applying: who wrote the article? what is their background? are they a domain expert? where they did get their sources? how did they come to conclusions? is their method sound? are they asking relevant questions? etc. etc.
And I don't always see that happening online. On the contrary. The fluidity and the speed at which information flows online seems to be a justification to give in and accept what's being said at face value. The past few years should have made it clear that such indulgence can lead to dire consequences.
With powerful tools comes responsibility. Sure, it's great to see people apply free and open source tools to come to a new understanding of observations. But that's only half of the story: you still have to apply critical thinking to those conclusions. That's not something throwing more code or technical skills can achieve.
Having a proper, critical debate takes time and experience.
This seems to be an improvement over academia imo. The person writing the article should be immaterial. The same paper written by an unheard of researcher should be treated no differently than the same paper written by a well-known, tenured researcher at a prestigious institution. Unfortunately in academia, who you are and who you know is often as big a deal as what you do and what you know.
> What is their background? are they a domain expert?
Again, the methodology should stand alone. Being a "domain expert" or having a particular background is only relevant if the readers of the article are incapable of judging the results on their own merits, and have to instead rely appeals to authority. But appeals to authority introduce their own problems, including a moat that protects the status quo and the ingroup from potentially important new ideas and newcomers. And its hardly scientific.
> where they did get their sources? how did they come to conclusions? is their method sound? are they asking relevant questions? etc. etc.
These need not be restricted to academic work. If a blog fails to properly cite sources, you can move on. Plenty of academic papers are built on flimsy premises, poor methodology, asking incorrect questions, etc. etc. There is nothing differentiating the ability to assess the quality of something written in a blog vs something written in an academic journal here.
> And I don't always see that happening online. On the contrary. The fluidity and the speed at which information flows online seems to be a justification to give in and accept what's being said at face value. The past few years should have made it clear that such indulgence can lead to dire consequences.
And yet, as noted, the more conservative approach of academia has resulted in a huge amount of unreproducible "science". And now, in a time of crisis, the stringent model is being set aside in favor of openly available preprints shared online, without peer review, via social media. How can the traditional model be considered useful when, in times without urgency, the validity of its results are highly questionable, and in times of urgency, its thrown aside for the sake of actual progress? It seems to me the modern academic method is largely a facade, something closer to an ornate religious ritual that has been divorced of its actual intentions.
> But that's only half of the story: you still have to apply critical thinking to those conclusions. That's not something throwing more code or technical skills can achieve.
This assumes that those coding or utilizing technical skills are doing so without critical thinking. Perhaps this is true some of the time, but I don't see the situation being any different in academia.
> Having a proper, critical debate takes time and experience.
What constitutes a "proper, critical debate" is subjective. And from my position, it would appear that the advent of the internet and freedom of information is making the current academic model unsustainable and obsolete. And so academia has an entrenched interest in defining "proper, critical debate" in a way that protects their livelihood.
I'm not saying there isn't plenty of poorly written science and analysis being done on blogs out there. I'm simply saying I don't think traditional academia and science is much different.
Self motivation is much harder than you think, and a little nudge from a bootcamp may be what most people need before they become 'self motivated'.
However...
The coronavirus is a case where it's very easy to unintentionally misinterpret the data, and casual analysis will likely add more noise/false information which is not what is needed now. (and any analysis will become out-of-date very quickly).
Some people can profit from this. Hence, the incentive.
Some people thrive in the bootcamp scene, while others enjoy the structure of a university. Both can be great tools for self-learning (I am thinking specifically of the resources a large university can provide, like media and electronics labs for creative projects that involve expensive cameras, 3D printers, etc), and both can be misused. University based education does not have to be ancient.
(also I say this fully appreciating that you were explaining the parent poster's view and you may not necessarily support it)
I say this as a graduate of Insight which is a kind of DS bootcamp.
What makes you think epidemiologists are so great? The one who has guided the UK's response has been severely criticised by fellow academics in the past for bogus low quality modelling. The Imperial College paper has basic errors and flawed assumptions that are obvious even to untrained laymen.
I think you're wildly over-estimating how much statistical and logical training most academics get. This is one of the basic underlying problems that the replication crisis has exposed: an unending flood of academic papers, especially those doing modelling, that fall apart when examined by people with statistical and mathematical training.
You're right that a 4 week bootcamp won't make someone a flawless handling of data. But it might still be a more rigorous form of training than epidemiologists get.
I think the most effective approach, which adds to your argument, is ensemble modelling from numerous, independent researchers from many fields. This is akin to how many people guessing at the number of gumballs in a container at the fair will average to the correct amount, while any single guess will not. There is a Freakonomics episode, Superpredictors, which demonstrates the use of this statistical approach for anticipating the outcome of voting in foreign politics.
There is a time and place for naive, exploratory, or just plain wrong-headed exposition. Making plausible looking but wrong "scientific" prognostications in the middle of a global emergency isn't one of them.
The data can be used by a lot of people for a lot of learning.
My project: I’d like to watch the growth state by state on a daily basis.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
as a simpler start, see the logarithmic chart here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Note how easy is to estimate the time frame in which the next factor of 10 could be reached with the growth that continues.
Compare with the logarithmic chart of China:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Search for the date since when they had their measures applied in Wuhan. Then follow how long it took for them to be visible in the chart. Then mark on the US chart when the measures started. Compare. Also mark the day of the following quote: "And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."
One can learn really a lot just from the data.
... might be a useful starting point if you want to fork off your own visualizations and analyses.
Wow.
You can change the value of `startDate` in that notebook if you'd like to look back further in time.
In countries like Italy where very few young people have tested positive, it's due to test triage. You aren't going to spend tests on asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic 25yos.
Also, thanks for this link - rant aside, it's the best dataset I've seen.
[0]: https://github.com/jake-low/covid-19-wa-data
[1]: https://observablehq.com/@jake-low/covid-19-in-washington-st...
Doing this for just one state was a pretty substantial effort. I imagine there are multiple people at the Times who are spending several hours a day reviewing and cleaning scraped data (seems every couple of days some formatting change breaks your scripts, or a source publishes data that later needs to be retracted).
The Times dataset appears to contain per-county case and death observations in a time series, going all the way back to the first confirmed U.S. case in January in Snohomish County, WA. This makes it by far the most comprehensive time series dataset of U.S. COVID-19 cases publicly available.
Some people in this thread linked to the Johns Hopkins CSSE dataset; I've looked at this data but it doesn't go back very far in time for the U.S., and the tables are published as daily summaries with differing table schemas which makes them hard to use out of the box. For some days earlier in March, "sublocations" aren't even structured (for example the same column contains, "Boston, MA" and "Los Angeles County", making it very hard to use). No disrespect to the team behind the JHU dataset; it attempts to cover the whole world since the outbreak began which is an incredible and difficult goal. But for mapping and studying the outbreak in the U.S., the Times dataset will likely be the best choice right now.
Huge kudos to the New York Times team for making this data freely available.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
edit: someone else posted this, which DOES give county-by-county breakdowns: https://accelerator.weather.com/bi/?perspective=dashboard&pa...
They also have the dataset available as a spreadsheet or a JSON or CSV API:
https://covidtracking.com/data/
The project was started by some journalists from The Atlantic. Seems to be a lot of duplicated effort in this area, although perhaps they are sharing data.
The key metric is tests/confirmed case.
When I've looked, this is very predictive of confirmed cases (2 weeks ago) per death.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod...
How is this form of license valid for what's essentially just numbers from publicly available data? Do I get to take numbers from various sources and then require credit and that nobody can use them for commercial purposes?
edit: Yeah, "Over months, our journalists have recorded the details on newly confirmed cases as reported by state and local officials." It's all government, just aggregated by NYT instead of the federal government.
Newspapers sometimes do jerky things like that.
This link may be informative and provide a US context. Sorry I don't have a more content specific reference.
https://academia.stackexchange.com/questions/63139/public-da...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feist_Publications,_Inc.,_v._R....
If NYT provides a "value add" here beyond mere aggregation and deduplication they are probably copyrightable. Otherwise they probably don't hold a copyright here (although they may attempt to claim it, just like RTS did).
See Feist v. Rural for the Supreme Court decision on copyrights over compilations of data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feist_Publications,_Inc.,_v._R....
EDIT: Some more details https://copyright.uslegal.com/enumerated-categories-of-copyr...
Are you saying that the NYT has added no value over just an unformatted stream of raw numbers?
If you can have a license on anything, you have to be able to license numbers.
The law isn't like pure logic... not all numbers are the same, even if they are the same number.
What colour are your bits? https://ansuz.sooke.bc.ca/entry/23
or one of these population-weighted projections of different areas:
https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/
From the data I've learned that Washington state appears to be getting their arms around this thing:
The NYT spent more effort patting themselves on the back than they did compiling the data.
This takes some know-how and a bunch of ETL effort. There is significant value in their transformation of upstream data.
For example, two towns in my state have confirmed cases, are ported by the state health authorities and the local newspapers, but neither is on that map.
I think that it's pretty interesting to sort by the columns and browse the data.
The site's not great on mobile, but I'm working on that this weekend...
{ edit: explanation } Viruses are tiny fragments of dna and proteins that are only there to throw a monkey wrench into your cells. Sometimes that monkey wrench does fairly harmless things. These viruses thrive, because they find lots of healthy hosts over a long period of time.
But some break things badly, reproduce out of control or change your cells' functions to be less optimal. These don't do as well, since their hosts don't thrive.
The viruses don't 'care' what they're doing; they're just bits of junk that mutate a lot. The ones that kill things quickly, tend to die out.
The only reason the world isn't full of horrible murdering viruses (any more than it is) is, statistics. Not some grand plan or kindly act of nature.
That's not the purpose of the berry. The purpose is just to ensure the survival of the seed. In drought-stricken environments, the seed is probably better off keeping its shell of water and fructose until it can form a root system.
For other plants it may be advantageous to be poisonous to one species and not another
Birds tend to travel farther during any given time period than (typically terrestrial) mammals do, making them better at spreading seeds over a wide area. So it's evolutionarily advantageous for plants to optimize their fruits to be eaten by birds instead of mammals.
Micro organisms are all about spreading genetic material, since they are so small, they have evolved passive strategies to do just that. Such as using a host organism and hitching a ride via fluid exchange.
What makes all the difference is where they will end up, and how they behave in particular environments. Coronavirus outside your body is harmless, but if it gets in your lungs, it may destroy those while it replicates.
Your gut teems with bacteria. There are dozens of species living in your colon. And you actually need them since they help break down food into its constituent parts in order for your gut to be able to absorb the nutrients.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_gastrointestinal_microbi...
However, if your bowels get perforated and that bacterial contents seeps between your organs, you'll get in deep deep trouble: these bacteria will start to infect organs they shouldn't infect, get into your bloodstream. You'll get sepsis and risk death.
So, harmless bacteria turn deadly if they end up in the wrong spot.
The interesting part about viruses is that through the way they operate - injecting itself into the DNA of our cells which will then bang off new copies of the virus - their genetic material has embedded itself into our own genome. It is estimated that 5 to 8% of the human genome consists of "endogenous viral elements". These are basically viral left overs, not viruses themselves, to be clear!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus
Micro organisms have been with us for a long, long time. We have evolved concurrently with them. And we will keep evolving alongside, evolving strategies - such immunity, or our ability to understand how they work - to ward off infections while new species will pop up and some might be successful in thwarting our evolved defenses.