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Don't forget the other direction: the people who die due to the shortage of ICU beds. There will be uninfected people who die that in normal times would have survived.

Only the excess deaths will allow us to have a true comparison, but sadly we only get those long after.

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Those are confounded too by the reduction in other deaths such as traffic related ones.

Why is it a confounder? If people have less traffic accidents due to staying at home, that makes the virus a little less destructive in terms of lives (just remember to account for the economic cost).

Because you won't be able to break out Covid-19 caused deaths from the aggregate.

I disagree, as noted elsewhere in this thread. Pandemic effects should be consider society-wide. Specific causal and medical or other mechanisms will differ, but it's the net effect which matters.

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