> In the hypothesis - not at all remote - that all citizens of Nembro have caught the virus (with many asymptomatic, therefore), 158 deaths would equate to a lethality rate of 1%. That is precisely the expected and measured lethality rate on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and - made proportionally by demographic structure - in South Korea. We have made exactly the same calculation for the municipalities of Cernusco sul Naviglio (Mi) and Pesaro using exactly the same methodology. In Cernusco the number of anomalous deaths is equal to 6.1 times those officially attributed to Covid-19, also in Pesaro 6.1 times. But even more staggering are the Bergamo figures, where the ratio reaches 10.4.
This seems an unreasonable assumption, no? I don’t think any models predict a 100% infection rate: herd immunity would kick in beforehand, at the least.
If true, then the death counts and death rates would be higher. E.g. with 50% infection, deaths are 4x, 12x and 20x, and the death rate is 2%.
Of course, you also have to account for local demographics.
Edit: I checked the numbers for Bergamo, and they’re troubling. It’s a city of 122,000, and it has a 0.5% death rate for the whole city.
Further, people are still sick and dying, so these death rates will only go up.