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Comment by duxup | Hacker News Reader

Nobody knows. I would say the main factors seem to be:

The COVID events are so sudden a way that doesn't seem to fit any real good pattern to look for in the past.

Even with that from my understanding since 2008 a lot of fundamental economic beliefs / predictions haven't really played out as folks would expect. Or at least the data available seems to not provide much in the way of ... understanding / predictability based on the past. (this is not my area of expertise)

Politically things seems fairly unpredictable even pre COVID ... toss in some economic / health crises and I don't know how anyone could feel they know anything.

It seems like it is the unknown layered on the unknown here. I'd be highly skeptical of anyone making anything other than a very general prediction.

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> Nobody knows.

10 mill unemployed in the US in two weeks is a pretty good signal if you ask me ;D. That is something like 6% of the total work force.

I mean beyond the general idea that "things are not looking good".

But how quickly will those "unemployed" be back in the work force again once this all lifts? We're used to the unemployment rate signaling a lot about how many "jobs" there are at all, in a steady-state "normal" economy. But with this shock, that's no longer what it means. We've never seen anything like this with a modern economy. What does it mean?

The only real answer is, nobody knows. By the time anyone could collect enough data to even have a real guess, we'll already be running the natural experiment directly to see how many people get back to work.

One thing I will predict with confidence though is that the result will not be exactly the same as if the "normal economy" had produced a 30% unemployment number. Straight-line projections of that nature are useless.

In addition, how long will there be a trickle effect of people too afraid of a Covid comeback to return to the workforce.

> But how quickly will those "unemployed" be back in the work force again once this all lifts?

Businesses are closing permanently in Seattle. It may take some time for these jobs to rematerialize.

Usually, when a small business closes, it's often a sign that the niche it was trying to fill didn't exist, or that the business person is not skilled enough to make it work. A lot of these businesses permanently closing probably represent niches that may re-open relatively quickly, and had people skilled enough to keep it going. Restaurants may not bounce back 100%, but it's not like the market for restaurants is going to be indefinitely 10% of what it was in 2019.

We just don't know. We've never seen anything like this in the modern era.

I do suspect that we're going to see one of those generational shifts like the Great Depression, and a lot more businesses are going to start thinking in terms of "runway", and trying to keep around a few months of "runway" in the future.

Or extremely razor thin margins.

Brick and mortar retail was already hard pressed by Amazon and co., this virus has shut most of them down while Amazon is still going. Yes, the internet companies will do fine, but everyone else...is in huge trouble. This virus speeds up a transition well underway, and we might not be ready for the shock of that speed.

I think this is yet another place where there's a fundamental lack of leadership. The Federal government should be looking for ways to allow businesses to suspend operations and make whole landlords and banks where possible. No business should be shut down permanently because of this but unfortunately, we have a massive lack of vision at the Federal level at this point.

Even when they return, they’ll be under more debt, and their disposable income will be lower.

Banks might benefit from that, but they’re simultaneously getting hammered by low interest stimulus loans.

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