Honestly, the most important metric is deaths, and from what I can see, the SF Bay Area has done relatively well in that metric. No overcrowded hospitals, for example.
* Overcrowded hospitals is what leads to large jumps in fatality rates.
* It only lags the date of infection by about a week.
* It also isn't subject to external factors like availability of tests. (Though availability of hospital beds is a factor later on)