Comment by aazaa | Hacker News Reader

Comment by aazaa | Hacker News Reader

Johnson, like many world leaders, vastly underestimated what he was facing:

> "I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake hands," he said. "People obviously can make up their own minds but I think the scientific evidence is… our judgement is that washing your hands is the crucial thing."

https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-says-shaken-hands-cor...

This may be the first crisis where shooting your mouth off about things you know little about backfires - quickly and lethally.

I suspect there will be many instances of this sort of thing in the months to come. False predictions about "light at the end of the tunnel." Panicked re-instatements of lockdowns after premature lifting. Miracle cures that turn deadly because drugs are much more complicated than they seem.

All the while cheerleaders with hidden agendas will continue to promote dangerous, ill-informed opinions.

That was weeks ago. The facts changed and he changed his mind. Yet nothing he has said since then erases the original sin apparently.

Now he’s in ICU and may not survive.

Let those without sin cast the first stone.

Johnson showed the same careless attitude towards covid facts as he has shown towards all other things he has faced in his life.

> The facts changed and he changed his mind

He was pushing against scientific advise at first without good reason when the time is the essence. Nobody should wish him iĺl, but using him as an example is justified.

I think "may not survive" is setting the wrong tone here since the odds of him surviving are good.

Consider that people in ICU have a much higher mortality rate than the general population, that the government is going to bias their reports towards calm and stability, and that most people would even call a 20% probability of dying pretty bad.

Saying that “he may not survive“ is perfectly reasonable. It’s not saying he’s definitely going to die. I hope the media wouldn’t sensationalize it like this, but there is definitely a chance that he will die.

There's 66% - 90% mortality after ventilator use by corona patients.

He's not on a ventilator yet as far as we know

The facts didn’t change: it’s the same virus now as it was then. Our understanding of it may have changed. But even then, its lethality was obvious to anyone who didn’t think Europeans are somehow different from Chinese.

And it’s easy to prove that this virus was considered dangerous even back then: this whole shtick of shaking hands and talking about it doesn’t make any sense except against the backdrop of people warning against it.

It was a macho bravado move; performative politics put on as a gambit to win another news cycle in the endless culture wars. And it is so obvious a parallel to Brexit, from the blatant disregard of evidence, expertise, and science all the way to the hints of racism, that no appeal of “not the day to get into the politics” will be able to prevent people from seeing the obvious: it was incredibly stupid.

To not point out how his kind of politics is now endangering his life would waste an opportunity to learn, at a moment where decisions can still influence outcomes, and good decisions can make the difference for thousands of people who may or may not die. With that in mind, it is also in everyone’s interest, beyond basic humanity demanding it, to hope for his survival: Boris Johnson is a terrible person in many regards, but he isn’t entirely stupid. There’s a good chance he would learn from this, and he may well be the perfect ambassador that can get through to his fans.

Real news from China was months ago. Leaked wechat doctor testimonies, recordings of seemingly healthy people collapsing on the streets, apartment buildings being welded shut, hospital corridors blocked with body bags.

He is a prime minister with direct access to intelligence services, he should of known better.

There have been so many people, including here on HN, who've said you only have to worry if you're over 80 or have significant comorbidity.

Those groups are higher risk, but that doesn't mean everyone else is "no risk".

Here's a twitter thread that contains a link to data from English, Welsh, and Northern Irish intensive care units.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

It's hard to accept, but it might be a Kobayashi Maru. It could be that smart or dumb, the end result would be about the same.

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