1. The recent disconnect between government debt and the economic cycle as the debt-to-GDP ratio has shot up when unemployment is low. Who knows how bad that's going to look as unemployment inevitably shoots up and government receipts go down as a result.
2. The fact that corporate income has basically been flat since 2014. That was a surprise to me and particularly surprisingly the almost unprecedented stock market rally over that period. When earnings become divorced from returns, it tends to signal the end of the boom and everything comes crashing back to earth at some point.
3. Seeing just how high China's USD-denominated debt is. I've read a few things on the possible US-China trade war in the last couple of years and I'd come round to the view that China was in a far weaker position for a protracted trade war than many thought. This data point fits that view.
4. The US tax "cuts" aka the GOP Donor Class Handout Act may well go down as one of the most foolish missed opportunities of the modern era, particularly given the trillions the government is clearly going to spend on Covid-19 bailouts.
5. The Federal Reserve is likely going to have to go on an unprecedented money printing spree to buy government debt.
What I'd like to know is will any of this impact inflation?