I coded COBOL and RPGII programs back in the late 70's, and I'd flip burgers before writing another line.
If we make these (very questionable) assumptions:
- Most qualified mainframe COBOL programmers are in an age bracket for which COVID-19 is very dangerous,
- and most COBOL shops are reluctant to allow all-remote teams,
then it might be harder to fill those jobs than it is to hire risk-tolerant / risk-ignorant young adults to flip burgers.