> It doesn't make sense to apply the same prior to "the CIA planted COVID-19 in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market", because there are many such markets in China, and only one BSL-4 facility.

I didn't make an error. The way the conspiracy theory goes in China is that the Military World Games [0] were held in Wuhan just before the outbreak. In other words, they knew the US military was in Wuhan specifically (in fact, right next to the seafood market), just like you know that WIV is in Wuhan specifically. The two conspiracy theories really are equally credible, by which I mean they're both bullshit.

The reason is because of this assumption you made:

    P(my favorite conspiracy theory) = 0.01
    P(outbreak in 14km radius | my favorite conspiracy theory is false) = 1/3,000

Because 1/3000 is so much lower than 1/100, you're essentially assuming from the start that your favorite conspiracy theory (insert "WIV" or "CIA" or whatever else here) is a much better explanation than all other possible explanations combined, because all of them combined can only total up to a likelihood of 1/3000. In other words, you rigged the game to support your conspiracy theory from the start. I was trying to point out how similar rigging can be used to justify any conspiracy theory.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games