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Comment by DyslexicAtheist | Hacker News Reader

Nassim N. Taleb, author of BlackSwan books. His thinking about risk/probability is timeless. Frequently publishes links to his papers and debunks the BS-peddlers on his twitter: https://twitter.com/nntaleb

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I liked Taleb's "The Black Swan" but find his Twitter persona grating. He displays an attitude of, "anyone who doesn't agree with me is dumb". I think the opposite is needed now. Complex and difficult issues are better approached with humility, and a frank and open discussion of uncertainty.

I don't mind arrogance on public personas[^] who are very good at what they do. Think Steve Jobs arrogance. Think José Mourinho "I'm the special one" in 2004. I read it as putting your (reputational) neck on the line. "I'm so sure of this assertion that I'm risking my reputation here.". Taleb is one such brilliant mind.

The downside to arrogance is that it will tank your reputation if you fail. This may be too early in History, and too politically charged to use as an example, but think Trump.

[^] on personal interactions, though, I find arrogance a repellent trait.

He's only arrogant to people covertly arrogant.

Sorry, are you referring to Kaleb or Trump? thanks

A perhaps more important downside to arrogance is that hubris leads to blindness. One can be so blinded by the light of one's own brilliance that one fails to see beyond it. Intellectual humility, therefore, is the recognition of our limitations and helps us remain open to new information.

On Twitter, for him, it is a completely justifiable approach, and he would be correct 99.99% of times.

There was a particularly childish fight between Taleb and Nate Silver about a year ago on Twitter. I couldn't stand following either of them after that and I haven't looked back.

Wasn't there a similarly childish fight between Taleb and Pinker, too? That kind of thing is embarrassing. I haven't read Taleb but I enjoy the occasional Pinker and don't want to see him engaged in pointless ego fights.

I used to think highly of Pinker, but IMHO in his discussions with Taleb he lost credibility. The discussions were not pointless ego fights, but Taleb exposed some of Pinker's main claims as pseudoscience and Pinker haven't really recovered.

I like Taleb and really enjoyed Anti-Fragile and The Black Swan. His personality doesn't bother me too much, but I do think those two books could be 1/3 the size.

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