My understanding was the social distancing won't actually prevent everyone from getting covid19, it'll just slow it down so that we don't all get it at once. Most people will end up with it.

So given that, I'd say the changes are nearly 0%.

To actually keep infections to a minimum, we need to actually quarantine, but (again, my understanding) that will have too many other negative effects, and the economic hardships could actually kill more people than the disease would have.