I keep hearing these stories about how Sweden's approach will end in disaster, but their new case rate is ~500 per day with >10,000 existing cases. A 5% growth rate of new cases strongly implies that they are already past the peak.

What am I missing that would imply things are about to get vastly worse there?

(I do see some other specific mistakes there that lead to a higher death rate, but I don't see the concern about things suddenly getting worse in the future)