As for hiding within the flu statistics, we test for influenza so these deaths would not have been classified as flu related.
It's possible to have flu and covid-19 but early on it would have been rare. It's probably still somewhat rare.
I am sure flu surveillance samples will be retroactively tested for the virus that causes covid-19. Stanford did this and they have mid to late Feb.
> What if this is already the "second wave". Something with lower symptoms wouldn't have warranted checking for a new strain, complications and deaths would fit into the normal distribution of last fall's flu season with no outlier spikes.
I think you are misunderstanding what wave means here. It means an earlier not as deadly strain/conditions had already occurred, just like in the Spanish Flu in the spring versus the fall deadly resurgance, but at lower orders of magnitude. The strain itself doesn't have to be different if the co-morbidities were different - such as different opportunistic viruses or bacterias being present.
The virus could be the same, the opportunistic additional virus/bacteria could be different.
just like HIV causes no symptoms, until your immune system is down and a different infection (caused by bacteria or virus) kills you. Maybe even a normal "gut" bacteria, or something in your body usually present, is what kills you.
There is research pointing to Sars-Cov-2 attacking T cells directly. Instant AIDS.
In the fall and early winter, there could have been different variables that made it less debilitating and deadly than the spring variables. And in that case the fall and early winter deaths and pneumonia would have blended in to normal distribution.