Lockdowns don’t seem to have any noticeable effect on the spread of Covid-19

This article uses Sweden as some kind of null-hypothesis reference, but it's important to understand that Sweden is only one of the least locked down countries de jure.

Sweden is de facto as locked down as most other countries, everyone that can work from home does so, schools are almost empty, restaurants are almost empty, people are traveling less, the border is closed, etc.

So it's not the case that a country can completely lift the lockdown and expect to continue along the same path as Sweden, you have to look at and model what people are actually doing, not what they're told to do.

Still, the article is very interesting because it shows that every country is suppressing the exponential growth somehow, it's not really out of control anywhere anymore.

Another point is that these charts likely are showing that for a given set of already infected people you are seeing a saturation curve. Initially high growth — high % increase per day or per week. But then eventually you are saturating the population — not saturating the entire population but saturating the initial population who are already infected.

Likely the main takeaway here is that because of the lag time between infection and symptoms it’s quite possible a huge number of people got infected in certain areas earlier than people thought and by the time the curve started ticking up the entire situation was already going to follow a particular trend.. for example let’s say the virus was spreading widely in feb, but then we started to see symptoms in March, but by then tons of people already had it, so any measures you put in place are seemingly disconnected from the actual trend you see. Therefore, it could be that the impact of the measures in March will only be obvious by end of April or something like that..

Seems like not the best proof to me: He takes the median and then is looking at the graphs like it should happen exactly at that point? His source[0] also shows it is 2-14 days, and he then uses 5 days. Weird.

Also, most of these countries in Europe did not do only 1 'lockdown' on a specific day. But increased the social distancing policies over 2-4 weeks, a bit stricter every few days. That is what I know from my country (The Netherlands) and what was widely reported about France and Italy as well.

[0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...