How can it not be? Pandemics are known events but one that gets out of control with a large economic impact is really out of the norm. Simply put we were unprepared for it because we thought it was such a small possibility that it was unlikely to happen anytime soon. The history books will talk about how it was predictable and we should have been ready. Yet, here we are, unprepared and dealing with it.

It reminds me of Pearl Harbor. History books talk about how the U.S. had warning that it was coming and that the U.S. should had known that it was coming even without warning. But as we know, no one was ready for it.

Well, what happens if there is a Chelyabinsk x whatever factor event next week? Certainly lots of people worry about such things, just like pandemics. So maybe it's not a black swan. But I think it's predictable that most people would be really shocked and completely refocus their concerns once it happened.

Anything that happens that startles people, almost certainly doesn't startle everybody. But anything that hasn't happened in a while, if ever, is going to startle most.