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Comment by phkahler | Hacker News Reader

This really illustrates that the parameter in question is not just a characteristic of the virus, but also of the environment.

I think a lot of people forget that if try to return to normal activity this is just going to shoot back up. I have yet to see an exit strategy other than "modulate social distancing such that the health care system is near capacity, we can gradually open up as more people are immune due to prior infection."

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It's not obvious that it will shoot back up, depending on how careful we all about the return. People talk a lot about the multiple waves of the Spanish Flu, but the logical consequence of that is that transmission of a respiratory disease can be sustainably reduced; otherwise there would have only been the one wave.

The flu is seasonal, the first wave died down during the summer and the second wave started in the fall.

"Seasonal" just means that we see this pattern regularly every year. It's not that there's some specific property of the flu which stops it from spreading during the summer - there could be, but we don't know.

> more people are immune due to prior infection

This is not a given. Other coronaviruses tend to confer only temporary immunity, and this one might be similar.

This thing could become seasonal unless/until we make a very effective vaccine against it. <shudder/>

> an exit strategy

Widespread vaccinations. Yes, I understand how far away that is likely to be. Yes, the economic ramifications are relatively terrifying.

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