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at what multiplier would you consider being skeptical about what he says.

your comparison of the 2 mil which was the worst case scenario months ago, and now irrelevant, with 40k which was his prediction from 10 days ago is wrong.

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You have to read the study’s details, not just the number in the headline. The IC report’s highest number was looking at what would happen if strong countermeasures were not taken, and they subsequently were — it’s like criticizing the justifications for mandating seatbelts because so many fewer people die in car crashes now.

that's what I am trying to tell him. comparing his prediction a week ago with measures to a prediction a month or more ago without measure is pointless.

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