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> Given that Japan's official count is ~11k, is there reason to believe 1/4 of all official cases are "severe"?

Yes. That fits data out thus far.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

> Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%)

Combine the 19% severe cases number out of China with Japan's aging population (which COVID-19 hits substantially harder), and 1/4 is entirely reasonable.

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Is "mild" vs. "severe" dichotomous? I feel like I've usually seen the trichotomy of "mild" => not needing hospitalization, "moderate" => needing hospitalization, "severe" => needing ICU treatment.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida...

> The largest cohort of >44,000 persons with COVID-19 from China showed that illness severity can range from mild to critical38:

> * Mild to moderate (mild symptoms up to mild pneumonia): 81%

> * Severe (dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50% lung involvement on imaging): 14%

> * Critical (respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan system dysfunction): 5%

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