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Comment by jasoneckert | Hacker News Reader

I seriously doubt that Apple would release an ARM-based laptop that would "destroy" the massive low/mid-tier Chromebook and Windows laptop market for three reasons:

a) They'd have to release it at the same price point or less than those products (that's not The Apple Way)

b) Chromebooks have a huge market share in the educational space, and Windows low-end laptops have a massive market share everywhere else (and in general, the first person to a market usually maintains their lead for a long time, even given other factors - just like Apple with the iPhone)

c) This would require users to switch from one app ecosystem to another on a different platform that attracts developers that want to monetize directly compared to the app ecosystem on most Chromebooks and low-end Windows laptops (which are still x86_64-based and have a plethora of free/FOSS productivity apps)

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Point a) need to be elaborated a bit: the reason they can't release it at a very low price point is that, while sure, it might "destroy" the chromebook and low-end windows laptop market, it would also destroy much of the MacBook and iPad market for the same reason.

Who's going to buy the $1k macbook when a $300 one works just as well? This isn't going to happen. Apple is a company built on high margin products, they aren't going to change that.

Worried about cannibalization? Of course, like the iPhone SE, there are some sacrifices compared to the premium devices, because these are non essentials for the target demographic: commoners.

a) Absolutely agreed. Considering the previous Macbook 12" was priced almost twice the price of the Macbook Air and marketed as a premium ultracompact, why would they do things differently?

The Macbook 12" was pretty clearly targeted at someone like me, who during normal times was traveling something like 1/3 of the time and really isn't very price sensitive. To be honest, I'm not sure why there isn't a bigger market for a premium 11" to 12" laptop. A 2 pound 13" laptop like the Pixelbook Go isn't bad for travel but I'd still probably go with something a bit smaller if a good option were available.

Gripping on to my i7 Macbook 12" for dear life, I would jump on one with an apple chip if it ran cooler and had 3x the performance. Apple really need to focus on these things not being leg warmers though.

I was all ready to buy one when Apple refreshed it but then they discontinued it instead. And the refurb prices were pretty rich for a relatively old system.

If they do an update with an Apple chip, I would almost certainly get one.

I prefer a quiet fan, though.

>I seriously doubt that Apple would release an ARM-based laptop that would "destroy" the massive low/mid-tier Chromebook and Windows laptop market for three reasons:

>a) They'd have to release it at the same price point or less than those products (that's not The Apple Way)

When I covered IT hardware companies on Wall Street, I heard Apple's CFO say that his company could release a $799 computer "but we don't want to".

Around the same time, at an investor dinner with the Dell CFO, an attendee asked how sales were of a $299 computer on Dell's print catalog cover. The CFO replied, "the problem with advertising a $299 computer is that people want to buy it".

BUSINESS concepts behind the scenes:

a) What people don't understand about the SE strategy, besides economies of scale and a smaller, more powerful phone, is that the device was made to offer extreme value targeting a demographic using a specific strategy called "Price skimming": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_skimming

The iPhone SE was designed to lower consumer's (Android users) barrier to entry (price) into the brand, to quickly gain market share, then sell them services or premium devices in the future. This is possible because of Apple's established reputation as a premium brand (as opposed to penetration pricing): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penetration_pricing

b) The "1st mover advantage" is a myth. Consider Facebook or Google, they gained near monopoly market share because they were first in their technology/approach, not market.

The 'Apple way' is to wait for competitors to test new markets and get consumer validation, lowering risks by learning from early competitor errors, then grab market share with a product that delivers a better UX due to its superior combination of technologies. Look at Fitbit's demise with the Apple Watch - Google is now trying to replicate its Android success by acquiring Fitbit- "2nd mover advantage" works if done right.

c) If a and b work, this will make no difference to users, considering that Apple's strategy will not be focused on apps (this is a strength in phones, not laptops), but rather to sell a value performance device for the general public.

The Macbook failed not because it targeted the wrong demographic (business users) vs Air (students and commoners) and Pro (other professionals), but because it failed to provide value as an 'entry level' device: low specs, highly priced - they (partly) wrongly assumed business users' willingness to pay a premium for portability (inelastic demand) without regard for the value.

Nevertheless, the Macbook offer (a 1st gen. test product) did serve its purpose by anchoring users to see the next better offer at hand- the Air. This strategy called "bundling" in 3 options: good (price), better (quality), best (both) often serves to guide users to avoid extremes by choosing the middle option (usually most profitable), also called the "center stage effect": https://kenthendricks.com/center-stage-effect/

I recommend reading Stanford consultants' "Monetizing Innovation" to understand these strategies: https://www.amazon.com/Monetizing-Innovation-Companies-Desig...

In short, if they can offer a value laptop (priced below ~$700, best deal ultrabooks at this range) in an old body design (12 inch) and best tech specs (A14 or ARM), then this could be Apple's 'Macbook SE' offer. Heck, even test a 1st generation with cheaper AMD's chipset.

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