Thinking of the package as a black box, if the implementation for left-pad or is-promise was 200 lines would it suddenly be ok for so many other packages to depend on it? Why? The size of the package doesn't make it less bug-prone.
I see plenty of people who are over-eager to always be up-to-date, when there really isn't any point to it if your system works well, and so they don't pin their versions. This will break big applications when one-line packages break, but also when when 5000-line packages break. Dependencies are part of your source, don't change it for the sake of changing it, and don't change it without reviewing it.