Hacker News Reader

Comment by nscalf | Hacker News Reader

That's assuming you can time it right. I've been holding puts for ~2 months, and I went from very right to very wrong very quickly. I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.

View on HN

This is totally the hard part to know: how much will Trump prop up the stock market?

I recently heard the expression "the stock market is just a graph of rich people's emotions" and find it to be the most pithy truth of economics that I've encountered. A lot goes go into those emotions that we can not anticipate.

But timing is the whole thing. There is nothing else to be right or wrong about.

I mean, sure I can predict that the market go down and sure, sometime between now and the heat death of the universe the market will go down. Same about the market going up. But these kind of predictions are meaningless.

And why will the Fed stop spending my great-grandchildren’s money to prop up the stock market? I don’t see a reason.

> I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.

Be careful...

I was mostly being sarcastic, but I think it's relevant to direct you to this article (found in top 50 on HN). https://thesoundingline.com/fed-slows-qe-unlimited-to-just-8....

I'm hesitant to say that they're going to stop buying, but there is at least evidence of slowing.

I just said be careful, they can pump and release at will. You can't predict when they will do it, it's better to wait for them to announce it and THEN take action.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com