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Comment by wallflower | Hacker News Reader

Even if it could have been prevented, there is significant probability that another novel virus could arise from bat or other reservoirs in the future. Similar to how H1N1 better prepared certain countries who experienced it, this could be the wake-up call that was needed to help future generations survive a much worse virus by getting them more used to a life where being in a crowd is not normal. There are very few people alive who lived through the previous 1918 pandemic. This is our 1918 or, at least, a strong warning.

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Are you implying that the 1918 pandemic resulted in some sort of lesson learned or a fundamental shift in culture?

If anything, it actually seems to have resulted in a decade of partying.

We are all living through this in real-time. A few of us even know people who have died from COVID-19 [1]. For the first time in a long time, on a large scale, many people are experiencing the effects of normalcy bias, even if they don't it is called that particular term. [2] Good or bad, we are all seeing the results of having a global supply chain. For the first time in a long time, most of us know people who are unemployed for reasons that are beyond their control. We are seeing acutely the benefits of a social safety net. [3] For the first time in a very long time, with few exceptions, people are not experiencing FOMO as it relates to the innocent but probing "what are you doing this weekend?" or "what did you do this weekend?", as people simply cannot "go out on a Friday" like they did just a couple months ago. The whole casual Tinder hookup culture is undergoing a sea change in the temporary era of social distancing, as kissing is a known probable vector for virus transmission. Let alone, having a date in a restaurant is a vaguer memory every passing day.

The Internet, broadly speaking, is fueling a return to creativity not seen widely since the days of MySpace. Creativity almost always thrives under constraint. For example, Russian isolation art [4].

Finally, for those who are saying we'll forget about this in two years... (normalcy bias) what if there is ultimately no successful vaccine and just a set of treatments that are fairly to moderately successful once you are infected?

[1] > The CDC's Pandemic Flu Storybook provides readers with a look at the impact pandemic flu events have had on both survivors and the families and friends of non-survivors. These stories are not folklore, but personal recollections.

https://www.cdc.gov/publications/panflu/stories/survived.htm...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/europe-coronavir...

[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/world/europe/russia-Faceb...

There was no vaccine for the Spanish Flu either. We didn't even know what caused the flu at the time, had no particular reason other than the course of past pandemics to believe it would recede, and in many places got hit with 3 waves of it. But once it did recede (and in some places even before it receded!) people were chomping at the bit to go out.

It just seems unrealistic to propose that, after humanity survived plague and smallpox and tuberculosis, a disease less deadly than all of them will be what ends our general willingness to physically interact with each other.

> our general willingness to physically interact with each other

In the best outcome, there is a successful vaccine. Even Introverts Gone Wild. The Roaring Twenties all over again, as another commenter mentioned.

In the worst outcome, we learn to live with COVID-19 or its offshoots, forcing each person to take into a risk calculation and mitigation measures for meeting others, especially in crowds.

In all outcomes, humanity will survive. Even if the Contagion virus, which was modeled after the Nipah virus with 80%+ mortality rates in certain break outs, becomes a reality in the future, there will always be survivors.

The Roaring Twenties happened in the absence of a vaccine or even pharmaceutical treatment. Every person was forced to take a risk calculation, and for most people the result of that calculation was "idk epidemics happen sometimes let's go dancing". Unless the average person has become radically more risk averse in the past century, we'll be prepared to ignore the virus in the medium to long term, no matter how good our response is now.

I don’t think this question came out right. I was not downplaying the severity of the current situation in any way, shape, or form.

I was genuinely asking if there were actual tangible effects post-1918 pandemic.

My cynical view is that no matter how long the current crisis lasts – 6 months or 6 years, or more, civilization has a notoriously bad long term memory and the ruling class has major incentives to help them forget.

My optimistic view of the current situation, is that it shifts some leverage to the working class similar to what happened during and shortly after the plague.

Thanks for the clarification. I do not have an answer since I have not researched it or yet read the John Barry book about 1918. However, the epidemic will be forgotten, assuming a safe, effective vaccine is found. In a few years time after worldwide vaccine deployment and ongoing international joint efforts to proactively fight emerging and unknown viruses, there might be an annual flashback on International COVID-19 Remembrance Day. There will be moments of silence and then normalcy straight thereafter. Adults who grew up during the era as kids might talk about it as a way to bond during in-person or VR (not for safety, the Metaverse will not be denied) dates. And then the next threat will arise and the cycle will repeat.

"the ruling class has major incentives to help them forget"

> Until then, get ready, my friends. What is about to be unleashed on American society will be the greatest campaign ever created to get you to feel normal again. It will come from brands, it will come from government, it will even come from each other, and it will come from the left and from the right. We will do anything, spend anything, believe anything, just so we can take away how horribly uncomfortable all of this feels. There will be an all-out blitz to make you believe you never saw what you saw.

https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2020/04/14/gaslighting-coro...

It did. About a decade afterwards, the first flu vaccines were invented, and the legacy of the "Spanish flu" frightened people for decades, leading to strong, proactive measures, albeit mostly against influenza viruses.

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