There's no way that it will reach 1-2 million.
My guess is that it will be the same thing like swine flu 10 years ago. The media will print out a sensationalized number, and the real numbers will end up being 10x fewer when calculated honestly.
My guess is that it will be the same thing like swine flu 10 years ago. The media will print out a sensationalized number, and the real numbers will end up being 10x fewer when calculated honestly.
It's been 7 weeks since the Imperial College model that predicted up to 2.2 million deaths in the US, that used an infection fatality rate of 0.9% as an assumption. The best science still has us in the 0.5% to 1% range for IFR, still putting us in the 1-2 million range if let ourselves get to herd immunity levels without a vaccine.
I think we'll avoid getting to 1-2 million, but it'll be because we take actions along the way to push some/most infections to post-vaccine or post-effective treatments.
> Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronaviru...
And of course we will get herd immunity soon, with the way exponentials work. We are re-opening the economy! We will reach herd immunity far quicker than we will get a vaccine.
What a well reasoned rebuttal.