Arab states are embracing solar power
economist.com
economist.com
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-e...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/03/countries-crank-ac-e...
Especially if the units are supplied with electricity generated from burning oil.
Reply in comment, since HN is rate limiting my VPN.
> Yes, because air conditioning units have net positive heat generation. Though they usually use water as their heat sinks, and if that water is flushed then it effectively eliminates the heat in a practical sense if not a thermodynamic sense.
This is assuming that the terrain without solar panels would convert as much energy into heat as the solar panels are collecting. In reality the terrain without solar panels reflects a lot of the energy it receives, whereas solar panels are optimized to absorb as much of it as possible.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2014-05-excess-ai...
I grew up in a state with tons of wind, but wind energy was hardly ever used (outside the old farmer windmills that were largely around because they looked cool). It was a great candidate for wind power but the local power companies were already heavy net exporters of power, coal, hydro electric. There just wasn't the incentive despite a lot of availability.
Something which can't be said about storing our nuclear waste for example...
However nuclear waste HAS to go somewhere. It has to be taken care of ($$$) and probably for millennia to come by people and governments which can do stuff we can't imagine today.
Not even mentioning failed storage options we're face with today already like Asse...
Waste from a coal plant is (somewhat) radioactive, it's full of metals and generally very toxic. If you're lucky you can find some actual use for it, e.g. as a constituent for some construction materials that will fix it in place, but you aren't going to get "a hill in the end" in a human lifetime by insisting it doesn't need to go anywhere, you just get a toxic heap of unstable black dust. If you try to grow plants on it, plants that do grow will be extremely toxic, because the heavy metals and other pollutants are drawn up into the plant.
But maybe you can convince your government to take our waste and fix this "trivial" problem? I'm sure we'd be able to pay for it a nice sum and your current president looks like he might be stupid enough to actually do it.
The US already has a disposal site constructed in the desert, but we're not using it yet. Europe also has a dig in Finland. Most of it stays on site because there's so little of it to store.
FYI: Finland is not like an US state only because it's part of Europe. It's an independent country and they will not take foreign nuclear waste.
PS. those 17.000 tons are just the highly radioactive material. All together it will be 280.000 cubic meters when we're finished decommissioning.
1 https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-...
2. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph241/avery-w2/images...
Replies in comment, since HN is limiting my work VPN or something like that.
> Is this a straw man or did you really not understand what I wrote?
From your comment:
> No, it stays on side because it's either not transportable (see Asse)
You explicitly brought up ease of transport.
> I also put something in there. This word in the brackets. You might have googled it up where you'd come upon pictures like that: https://media1.faz.net/ppmedia/aktuell/1203828188/1.3595409/.... Instead, you chose to ignore the complete rest of the comment and all the comments I wrote before and only wrote a completely irrelevant answer to something you did not understand. Congratulations for this derailment.
You claimed that transportation was a barrier to storing nuclear waste, by cherry picking one specific failure. And I refuted this claim by pointing out that plenty of the world's largest nuclear operators transport waste just fine. This isn't derailment, quite the opposite.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repo...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste_r...
Nobody want this shit. There is no place to transport it. None. We have to sit on it for millennia. Transport is not the issue here.
@your edit: >You explicitly brought up ease of transport.
I also put something in there. This word in the brackets. You might have googled it up where you'd come upon pictures like that: https://media1.faz.net/ppmedia/aktuell/1203828188/1.3595409/...
Instead, you chose to ignore the complete rest of the comment and all the comments I wrote before and only wrote a completely irrelevant answer to something you did not understand. Congratulations for this derailment.
EOD.
edit: but probably he wouldn't get it, because AFAIK that Yucca Mountian is unused for the same reasons as here. Local opposition...
edit: I don't know what to make to your picture of the Asse. THAT just shows our incompetence to responsible handling of the stuff. Maybe they are only full of old "Putzlappen"?
For what its worth, this isnt too far off from reality in the US. Nevada is a US state, but they wont take "foreign" nuclear waste from other states (and they dont generate their own, in part because water is scarce in the state). Intermediary states dont want to have waste transported through their borders either.
edit: in case it wasnt clear, the US has a partially constructed waste depo in Nevada that was abandoned a decade ago for largely political reasons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste_r...
Issues with storing nuclear waste are almost entirely (as far as I'm aware) idiot policy from past rushes to generate weapons material and NIMBY-ism.
Nuclear waste isn't harmless, but coal power stations kill people every day.
Most of us in Germany would also love to see this happen earlier.
Unfortunately the exit date is a political decision based upon the fact that the regions where jobs in coal would be lost are already tending towards a really really right party here and they are very much pro coal. So going faster is not really an option here since you can be sure that them winning, would revert those decisions very fast.
> Issues with storing nuclear waste are almost entirely (as far as I'm aware) idiot policy from past rushes to generate weapons material and NIMBY-ism.
Well that's not true. As most of the times when downplaying nuclear waste is concerned.
The last time we chose a nice salty mine to store the stuff, it started having holes here and there with a nice groundwater inflow that now needs to be pumped out and as always with nuclear power: in the end it's the taxpayer who needs to jump in and pay it all. Isn't that nice? All that money that could be invested into renewable energy, expanding grids and other nice things is now being wasted upon fixing errors from an era where everybody believed nuclear is the way to go.
Good we're past that now.
PS. that "nuclear vs. coal" story the nuclear lobby is pushing so much lately is an ignorant myth because of the reasons I've outlined above. Not a single coal plant would have been turned off if we'd left nuclear run on and ignored the environmentalists who are against nuclear AND coal in this country so there is absolutely no reason to build arguments based upon this myth.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/overview-...
The UK imports a bunch of this cheap nuclear electricity from France, we have a 2GW bi-directional line. In principle that line could sell power from our gas turbines in mid-winter if France needs the extra power to keep things running, but most of the time it imports French nuclear power because it's much cheaper than our gas. Our own nuclear fleet is too small for our base needs (6-7GW of nukes compared to ~18-20GW base)
Luckily, they'll finally be decommissioned now as France turns towards renewables: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-france-nuclear-reactors-macron...
But that's the price we pay for rapidly switching off all our nuclear plants and heavily subsidizing low efficiency inland wind farms.
That's the result of too much ideology in energy politics.
I think it's less about being scared and more about the eye-watering cost of storing waste responsibly.
So basically by building renewable we are reducing nuclear power's viability on the grid. Since there does not seem to be viable storage option (if there was we'd be building that instead of gas power plants everywhere), running only on renewable is not possible. So I really don't see the point in using renewables as we do when electricity is already low-carbon.
Thankfully the area I'm thinking about has since chosen to invest / had folks invest in wind power.
Out of sight out of mind has had some very large consequences.
"TWO MILLENNIA after the ancient Egyptians dropped their solar deity, Ra, their descendants are rediscovering the power of the sun."
and then the closer:
“Why spend money taking fuel out of the ground and processing it rather than relying on God-given free sun and wind?”
Very well done, kudos!
I see renewable gaining momentum here in the US as well and it's very exciting to see. In fact, I have recently just invested in BEP, and while it's not a majority share of my investment portfolio, it's quickly become one of my favorite investments.
"Number four, know you've heard this before,
Never get high, on your own supply."
As a kid our house had a solar water heating system that eventually broke and we could never find anyone that could fix it. I briefly looked into if my current house could get one and have yet to find a local company that installs them.
https://www.en-tran-ce.org/custom/uploads/2019/02/Renewable-... seems to say that last January the Netherlands had 4300 MW(p) of solar PV generating capacity, which produced 0.4 petajoules. If that's correct, the capacity factor of solar PV in the Netherlands averaged 3.5% that month, which is shockingly low, about three times lower than even Germany and nearly ten times worse than equatorial desert solar power plants — although January is one of the worst months, and eyeballing the graphs it looks like the year-round average is closer to 1.3 PJ per month, giving a deplorable 10% capacity factor similar to Germany's. Until and unless panel prices drop dramatically again, situating the panels somewhere sunnier will produce three times as much energy, enough to pay for constructing quite a bit of energy transmission infrastructure.
But what happens if panel prices do drop dramatically? Well, if this appalling 10% is a typical capacity factor for utility-scale PV in the Netherlands, the total solar resource is only 4.2 terawatts, of which about 900 gigawatts is available with typical 21%-efficient solar panels. This is an order of magnitude higher than the country's current energy demand, but of course that means that you'd have to cover about 10% of the countryside with solar panels to fulfill that demand from PV alone — and seasonal variability means you'd have to triple that if demand is constant year-round. Covering a third of the Netherlands with PV panels is probably not possible, and covering more than 100% of it is definitely not possible. So the new kinds of energy-intensive industry that will become possible if PV panels get cheaper still will be out of reach of indigenous PV production.
Between all of those sources, I suspect that importing solar from north Africa or China is not going to be attractive from a cost or efficiency point of view any time soon.
Offshore wind is getting a lot of investment and dropping panel prices are going to cause a lot of homeowners to put these on their roofs. Lots of people put panels on their roofs already, which in most cases does not fully cover their needs but lowers their energy cost. I wonder if that is included in the report. Reports like this tend to focus on grid providers. A lot of solar generation is happening off grid. Home owners, businesses, EV charging stations, etc. are all use cases where solar panels are commonly used to lower energy cost.
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I didn't make an underlying assumption about having just one source of energy to cover all needs. I made an extensively-sourced, well-substantiated calculation that, out of all the sources of energy available in the Netherlands, two of them represent a large enough resource to support an order-of-magnitude increase in energy usage — enhanced geothermal and solar — and neither of these will be economically competitive with importing solar energy from elsewhere.
The absurd misinterpretation that underlies your comment is that I'm talking about what will happen in, say, 2021, 2022, 2024, or 2028. But it should be obvious that the Netherlands is not on a path to use an order of magnitude more energy in 2028, nor will solar power in Morocco and the like usher in "new kinds of energy-intensive industry" that quickly. So, as should have been obvious from my initial comment, I'm talking about a longer timescale than that; I think 2040 to 2060. You chose to ignore this and instead interpret my comment as patent absurdity.
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Let's talk a little bit about this "lots of untapped potential" and "a lot of investment" and "a lot of homeowners" who "put panels on their roofs" you tout in your comment.
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First, what about the homeowners? Well, putting panels on your roof doesn't improve your capacity factor relative to the utility-scale plants surveyed in the reports I cited; in most cases it worsens it, because it's too expensive to reorient the roof to the optimal angle, and most people just use whatever the roof's existing angle is instead of building an extra truss to support the panel. So a square-meter 200-watt (peak) solar panel on a Dutch roof is still going to generate only about 20 watts on average, maybe 15 watts if your roof is at an unfortunate angle.
Moreover, there isn't nearly enough roof for rooftop solar to meet a significant fraction of demand. Current marketed energy consumption in the Netherlands is about 60 gigawatts electric, 100 gigawatts total, about 5.6 kilowatts per capita — about 280 square meters of panels per person.
Nevertheless, the total solar resource in the country is, as I said, 4.2 terawatts, of which 900 gigawatts would be available with current mainstream solar panels. It should be apparent that Dutch residential rooftop solar can only ever be an insignificantly tiny fraction of even the total current demand. It is an irrelevant distraction.
— ⁂ —
Of the other sources you mention, three — wind, tidal, and hydroelectric energy imported from Norway — are also insignificantly small compared to the country's solar resource. The fourth, geothermal, represents a larger energy resource than the solar resource, but because it is more expensive to access, it will remain untapped until after the Netherlands starts to experience a scarcity of places to erect solar panels.
David MacKay's Europe-wide estimate of the wind power resource per person is 0.4 W/m² http://withouthotair.com/c30/page_232.shtml, which works out to 17 GW in the Netherlands' 42865 km². This is enough to supply about a quarter of current marketed energy consumption. You will note that this 0.017 TW is insignificant compared to the 4.2 TW of solar resource. This is true almost everywhere, not just in the Netherlands; MacKay cites a worldwide estimate http://withouthotair.com/c30/page_235.shtml of some 53000 TWh/year (6 TW) of wind resource, which you will note is comparable to the solar resource of just the Netherlands.
Current Dutch wind farms total some 6 TW of nameplate capacity and are growing about 10% per year. These produce about 2 TW of power on average, giving about a 30%–40% capacity factor, a bit low for wind but not unreasonable. This represents 2% of the Netherlands' current energy demand, potentially growing to 4% within a decade.
https://globalwindatlas.info/area/Netherlands gives much higher numbers: 500 W/m² at a height of 100 m. This is lower than the solar resource only by a factor of 2, rather than the factor of 400 from MacKay. To resolve the discrepancy, let's look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windpark_Noordoostpolder, in an area the Global Wind Atlas rates as having 600 W/m² resource. It has a nameplate capacity of 429 MW and generates 1.4 TWh/year, which is 160 MW, a 37% capacity factor. It occupies 8 km², thus giving 20 W/m² on average, halfway between the two numbers. This is a bit better than what you would get with current mainstream solar panels (200 W/m² with a 10% capacity factor gives you 20 W/m² of panel, but angled at 53° you get 12 W per m² of land).
But presumably if you blanket a large percentage of the country with windmills, the wind speed will go down.
Tidal power is about two orders of magnitude smaller than wind power; MacKay http://withouthotair.com/c30/page_237.shtml cites "Kowalik (2004)" as estimating a worldwide practically-extractable resource of 40–80 GW. The Netherlands, with its mere 1900 km of coastline, can't have more than 1% of that total, since it has about 0.1% of the world's total coastline of 1.6 million km.
Norwegian hydroelectric energy is almost tapped out, and certainly cannot provide an order of magnitude more energy than at present; there just isn't enough rainfall at high elevations. Moreover, it is a particularly expensive form of energy, not just in flooded upstream lands and the risk of dam breaches but also in construction. Historically it has been competitive with, even a bit cheaper than, fossil-fuel power plants; but it has not experienced the dramatic collapse in pricing that photovoltaic has over the last decade.
— ⁂ —
Historically, geothermal power has been limited to areas with subterranean water in near contact with magma near the surface. But modern hydrofracking approaches ("enhanced geothermal systems", also more straightforwardly called "hot dry rock") have demonstrated the ability to extract thermal energy from much deeper rock without the necessity for it to already be wet; almost anywhere in the world can do this, using drilling equipment similar to an oil well. An enormous amount of fossil energy is locked in the crust from the last several billion years of radioactive decay. For uses like electricity and transport, though, the trouble is that turning the heat into a useful form requires running that heat through the same kind of steam turbines that are failing to compete with PV in existing coal and oil plants. The resource is enormous, orders of magnitude larger than solar, but even if drilling were free, solar will be cheaper until we start running out of land. Unless heat engines suddenly get a lot cheaper.
The geothermal gradient is typically about 30°/km, so typically you need to drill 3 km to even reach boiling, and almost 12 km to reach water's critical point. Most of the heat is "fossil heat"; heat flow out of the earth is currently about 44 TW, but this has been going on for 4 billion years, and most of that heat is still there, several million yottajoules.
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It's important to understand the magnitudes we're talking about: world marketed energy consumption, excluding food but including non-electric energy uses like shipping, is² about 19 terawatts (160 terawatt hours per year or 14000 Mtoe per year); total terrestrial insolation is roughly 130 000 terawatts (at 1000 W/m², at ground level) to 170 000 terawatts (at 1361 W/m², above the atmosphere); and the Ghawar supergiant oil field contained a bit over 100 billion barrels of oil before the humans started extracting it³. At the standard value of 37 MJ/ℓ, 100 billion barrels is almost 600 exajoules⁴ ⁵; if you burned it all in one year it would also produce 19 terawatts. Total world oil "production" is about 81 million barrels a day⁶, which works out to 5.5 terawatts, more than a quarter of world marketed energy consumption (although a significant minority of that oil is made into asphalt and plastics rather than burned).
So current world marketed energy consumption is a bit over 0.1% of total terrestrial insolation, and oil is only able to supply a small part (≈20%) of world marketed energy consumption. The solar resource, like the enhanced geothermal resource and the fusion-fuel resource of the oceans, is truly immense, dwarfing fossil fuel consumption.
Morocco, to take one of the listed countries as an example, is 710 000 km² of mostly cloudless desert¹. If solar plants there get a 30% capacity factor (typical for temperate deserts, maybe a bit low for Morocco) and use low-cost 16%-efficient solar panels, they'll produce 48 W/m² (on average around the clock), which is 48 MW/km²; the country as a whole could produce 34 terawatts, about double world marketed energy consumption.
— ⁂ —
Historically speaking, the humans have burned fossil fuels because their photovoltaic panel manufacturing was too inefficient; until the 1990s, it took more energy to produce a solar panel than it would produce during its design lifetime of 30 years. Now low-cost solar modules cost €0.18 per (peak) watt⁷, following a dramatic fall in crystalline silicon PV module prices from €2.17 per peak watt in May 2009⁰ to €0.19 in December 2018, representing dramatic improvements in efficiency of some 22% per year; since then, a price-fixing cartel then announced at Davos has prevented further improvements in efficiency from further lowering wholesale prices. Still, their cost is now comparable to the cost of the heat engines and electric generators needed to harness fossil fuels for purposes other than raw heat, exclusive of fuel and other operational expenses.
It's commonly commented that the sun doesn't shine at night, so solar power only works at night if you have transcontinental power transmission lines (not yet existing, probably HVDC, perhaps a strategic vulnerability similar to Twitter) or utility-scale energy storage. The need for storage can make solar energy roughly as expensive at night as fossil-fuel energy, but during the day it's considerably cheaper in areas with large solar resources. If transcontinental HVDC becomes a real thing, the countries mentioned could become bigger exporters of solar energy than they ever were of oil energy.
— ⁂ —
One more note about Morocco: Morocco has a lot of Arabs, but it also has a lot of Berbers¹; it seems sort of flamebaity to describe it as an "Arab state"!
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⁰ https://web.archive.org/web/20100722072720/http://www.solars...
¹ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco
² https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
³ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar
⁴ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_%28unit%29#Oil_barrel
⁵ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
⁶ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
Who is in it?
What is the effect of this cartel likely to be on prices /progress?
Will it be elaffected by eu/us regulation ?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-solar-gcl-i...
HN discussion at the time:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19002696
Like the DRAM cartel in the mid-1990s, it will probably hold prices constant for a while (the price freeze has lasted a year and a half already) before they start falling again. In the DRAM case they fell to the previous trend line, but in this case they might not; reducing panel costs much further would make them cheaper per square meter than things like window glass. Crystalline silicon photovoltaic panels have a minimum raw-materials cost per watt governed by terrestrial insolation and the mechanical fragility of silicon; this is different from the situation with DRAM where bits in RAM can be made arbitrarily small.
The US is currently imposing punitive tariffs on solar panel imports because the zombie bankrupt US solar panel manufacturer Suniva filed a lawsuit saying prices were too low — and won! So, whatever is going to happen with solar energy, the US will not be a participant for a few years, and maybe not ever. The EU certainly could make important moves, if they were to fund a venture to spin up PV production at prices that undercut China's, and certainly they are big PV buyers.
This is one thing I don't get: why do journalists confuse units so often?
EDIT: except science journalists, of course, some of whom have a real science background.
A normal person's interaction with the electrical world is extremely limited, so there is little utility in having any kind of understanding of it. I'd be much more worried if journalists were confusing, say, distance measurements with weight measurements, or something like that.
A journalist confusing units might have said something like "Its 6 million panels produce 3600 gigawatt hours," without bothering to tell you whether that's per day, per month, or per year. But it's perfectly correct to say that a panel or a solar plant produces some number of gigawatts.
† Yes, this depends on the type of panel and the location. Some panels are a little higher efficiency, some are a little lower efficiency, and the ones we use on satellites are a lot higher efficiency. And different places have more or less sun. Typical numbers are 1000 W/m² of "solar constant" nominal maximum insolation, 16%–21% efficiency (ratio of insolation to energy produced), and 15%–30% capacity factor (ratio of average power to peak power).
> Its 6m panels produce 1.5 gigawatt[-hour]s (GW[h]) of energy [per year]
or
> Its 6m panels produce 1.5 gigawatts (GW) of [power]
With some reasoning, I can land on the 2nd one just fine, but a little doubt lingers, because I've seen similar errors where I had to do the first substitution to make the numbers work.
A watt is just a joule per second, and a joule is a measure of energy, so I think that, in the same way, it's reasonable to talk about both "3100 joules of energy" and "200 watts of energy". I think it would probably be better to say "200 watts of power", but the other one isn't wrong. Is it?
Nearly every quantitative statement has an implicit denominator somewhere. Your server serves 50,000 requests per second, you say? Is that per core or per machine? Or maybe per rack? Occasionally there are implicit numerators as well: maybe those are 50,000 one-kilobyte requests.
Yes, it is. To use one of your examples, it's as wrong as saying you travelled a distance of 120 mph.
By "large" do you mean something more like 0.01 m², 0.1 m², 1 m², 10 m², or 100 m²? Any of those is a "large panel" in some frame of reference.
By large I mean around 2m² each. Not sure the best size to capture the most out of the sun. But we're at the edge of the Sahara desert, so the climate is a little bit helping there.
To be concrete, a 200-watt solar panel should cost about US$41, and produce on average 60 watts: 0.06 kWh/h, which is US$0.00126 per hour, US$0.03 per day, US$0.92 per month, US$11 per year. So in a bit less than four years, it pays for itself, unless the subsidized price of power drops by then or someone steals the panel. If we include a motor scooter battery and cigarette-lighter inverter so you can plug regular appliances into it, even at night, the payback time jumps up to maybe ten years.
Maybe you're mostly saying that US$41 or US$100 is a lot of money to invest up front, or maybe the problem is (as it is here in Argentina) that panel prices are wildly inflated by corruption.
Now I am thinking about grid connected setup but still AC module isn't cheap if they were only $50-$100, like the enphase AC units embedded into solar panel itself, it would be worth it. But it nearly doubles the price so I've not installed any panel yet.