The World of Sports Betting in a World Without Sports | Hacker News Reader

The World of Sports Betting in a World Without Sports

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It is very possible to make money betting on the obscure stuff. I am not going to say what exactly but whilst it isn't possible to get the same volume down, it is possible to have a big edge.

The craziest one was an event I backed at 2.5 in to 1.2 at closing. I have never seen anything close to this before. Just crazy stuff (that is an edge of 40% i.e. you make 40c every $1 you bet)...but you do have to be willing to do the work.

The mistake in the article and that every punter makes is to assume that events with "no information" are bad...but the person setting the odds doesn't have a secret book full of "information" either...the Russian ping pong league is rigged though.

I've often wondered about "rigged" games. Wouldn't there be a predictable arbitrage effect? I guess it would depend how frequent the rigged outcomes are... but if they were frequent enough, you could probably develop an edge by assuming that the odds were a bit different than they actually are. I'd think a typical fix would be on an upset, so, for example, the 3:1 event is actually a bit likelier than you'd think given the available information. If that's often enough to counteract the house cut, you could make money. ...Alternatively, I'd think it's possible a NN might be able to spot patterns in the riggers strategies. Particularly if you did some clever data mining to try and get some information on extended social networks of competitors.

There's only a predictable effect if you know what part is rigged. Normally bettors who have an "edge" don't just pick a team outright, they engage in point shaving or other assorted fuckery and don't make their large bets until the last minute. It's not going to be a referee being obvious, it's going to be a bought off official handing out a cheap penalty given late in the game to bring the score from 2 goals to one when the spread is 1.5.

Yep, I could give you the big spiel but all I know is that: I make money betting on things that are priced poorly, I can't price something that is rigged, and people who have more money than me don't bet on sports that are known to be rigged (i.e. low-ranking tennis, African football, etc.).

Even if you did look at the odds and find out that, for example, underdogs hit more often...I wouldn't bet it. You would probably have trouble getting your money down, sometimes you would get voided...it just isn't worth it.

Also, your reasoning about the odds being high isn't necessarily correct. That is kind of first-level thinking but...if you think about it...you should realise why, if you were rigging games, you would (probably) make more money rigging even/favourites...although it would depend (in some sports where rigging is very very common, I believe it is far less common for favourites to be paid to throw).

I've heard that the online betting platforms quickly stop taking your money if you have a consistent positive return. Any truth to that?

Yes, and if you're a consistent loser you'll be treated incredibly well, with free tickets to football matches, free tickets to Formula 1 races, anything to keep you gambling.

It's true. The more you win, the sooner you'll be stopped, at least at the betting company I've worked at.

This also applies to real world casinos :)

Yes, but you can be somewhat sensible. If they put up a line that is soft in an obscure event, don't hammer it with a huge stake. Put your bet on, they will move the price in after your bet. And don't try and hedge out the other side. Just leave it.

Also, don't try and arb lines. It is possible to make money doing this but you will have to churn through accounts constantly...which gets tiresome. Some bookies (Interwetten is one) just have soft lines...leave it.

...but if you want to do this properly either bet on an exchange or use a bet broker in Asia (or if you have access to Pinnacle/SBO Bet). No limits.

It is very possible to lose money betting on the obscure stuff. I'm not going to say what exactly but its just luck and you compete with all the other poeple thinking they can make a quick bug.

The mistake is, that at the end of the day, to get an 'edge' means: 1. You take the money from someone else 2. You have to spend so much time on this topic, that it becomes a job 3. Its still more risky, less awarding and just gambling than having a carrier within a proper profession 4. Don't let get draged into this gambling shit by people telling you how easy it is. Their main motivation to do so is to get your money 5. You are never the person who has the good odds. Not in poker, not in a casino, not online.

It is surprising that you think you know everything and that you actually know nothing.

It is very possible to make money betting (I have been doing it for over ten years). As you won't believe me, I would do some Googling on this. One of the biggest employers out of engineering programs in the UK is a betting syndicate. And betting is just probability. If the event happens more often than the price, you make money.

You bet, you win, someone else is losing.

I did not wrote this for the few people taking the money from the majority. I wrote this for the majority of people thinking they can win just to give it to you.

You lost me at poker. Poker is not against the house, and a rake simply changes various betting expected values. Poker is very much a game with varying levels of skill. A good player will consistently outplay a bad player. It is, however a game of high variance, so you need a bigger bankroll than most people realize. Also the skill level goes up quickly. a 10-20 table is much harder to beat than a 5-10 table. In fact these 2 facts makes a common meme with regular poker players. They find they can win at a lower stakes table then take their winnings only to lose it at a higher stakes table that they might be good enough to play but don’t have the bankroll to survive. Then they go back to grind it out at the lower stakes table. Rinse repeat.

I mentioned it to the other person commenting as well:

Gambling means someone has to lose.

It is not a job. It is not a way to earn money. It is a way to take money from others.

The majority of people have to lose, otherwise it wouldn't work for the few people trying to get all theothers to 'play with them'.

And yes i think poker is one of the 'fairest' 'games' but the same issue applies.

Imagine everyone winning in poker. Go figger

I wonder if there has been a surge in esports betting instead?

Oh shit I just realized this is probably a contributing factor to a phenomenon I noticed recently watching smaller dota tournaments: twitch chat was >50% (sometimes 90%) composed of sports bettors discussing lines and predictions instead of the games, which I'd never seen before.

Also could be that I'm just watching more small tournaments than I usually would though

Yes, this is occurring. But it is probably a bit less than you think.

CS:GO is definitely up, FIFA is up very big (even the rigged Russian tournaments) but everything else is probably only up small because they are so hard to watch. You can watch CS and understand what is going on...Overwatch is still baffling.

Absolutely! One org (cyber tractor) was even disqualified recently for match fixing.

Dota is unique in that the professional scene is subsidized by fans through Battle Pass, however the distribution of that resource was so lopsided, betting companies are starting to take a hold onto the smaller tournaments.

For those interested in betting on esports, there's been a lot of activity in the space recently. My startup, OkLetsPlay [1], partnered with Intel and Overwolf, takes a patented approach to providing a seamless experience from betting to playing. Note, we focus on players betting on their own skill in games, not betting on others. Legally, there's a key difference here.

1. https://okletsplay.com/

Have you been pitching this to investors?

What is the reaction? Do they focus on market/growth or are they all about compliance issues ?

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