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Comment by hijinks | Hacker News Reader

Sept/Oct the central banks can't save economies from the 2nd wave of covid-19 and the markets fall 40-50% in 7-10 days time.

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Unlike most ‘bets’ or even predictions about market timing that’s specific enough that you can actually turn that into a market position.

Do you have options or futures contracts for November? If not, why not?

I don't trade in over 4 week options to expire.

There is usually a sell off in Sept/Oct even in a bullish market. So if covid is still with us during that time and things start to get worse what you'll see is panic selloffs like we saw in early march but this will be a lot worse.

That’s assuming many things... including that countries actually shutdown. It’s also assuming the 2nd wave is bad and there’s not enough partial herd immunity to slow it down and assuming we don’t have a better treatment course or even a vaccine. Even if a vaccine is only 50% effective it would be a huge win.

While I understand the nature of your statement I also think humans and therefore markets are resilient. Many companies have pivoted to online and contactless delivery and are doing well. I’m sure there will be a loss but I’m not expecting 50%...

No way they make a vaccine in 5 months. Also, what if having sufficient antibodies has a lifespan, like 6 months?

6 months would be enough for the current pandemic to fizzle out. If the virus can't find susceptible hosts anymore it'll simply die. For now, that is.

Until it reappears or until we have a proper vaccine, for that matter (which at first might require several shots at intervals, too), treatments and general preparedness can improve.

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