I don't think there will be any real pressure for 3 to 6 months until the economy actually restarts properly and property transactions actually start happening again.
Not so much the Bay Area but there are a lot of cities where you can get a lot more space for a lot less money by moving out to even a fairly close-in suburb.
As for space, cities have lacked space for as long as cities have existed but people continue to migrate for the opportunity. I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices drop from short-term rentals reentering the market as single-family homes or long-term rentals.
The decision is not so clear cut.
That may be true but living in a suburban/exurban area outside of the Seattle core might well be better than either for many. I'm not sure how many will ultimately make a change because of this though. It will depend on people's job/commuting situation and how diminished city living seems when lease renewal time comes around.
Your original assertion was renters will move because the city is unsafe during COVID and that suburan areas are worth the price to commute trade-off.
Two suburban areas around Seattle are Snohomish and Pierce counties. Those "safer" suburbs are doing an objectively worse job of following Washington State's "Stay at Home" order [1]. Prior to COVID, hospitals were closing in rural and exurban areas, which reduced capacity during this pandemic [2]. Disregarding SAH/SIP orders and reduced capacity sounds dangerous, not safer and worth saving money.
As for cost, when enough housing capacity was built in Seattle then the rent stabilized. After short-term rentals are converted back into single-family homes or long-term leases then rent should continue to stabilize or decrease. When I last looked, increasing my commute from 25m to over 1h was not worth the savings in rent and would have required purchasing a car.
It's great you prefer the suburbs and there are absolutely people the 'burbs are better suited. Unless you have a valid reason to suggest people are going to move in-mass from cities to the burbs then I find "diminished city living" mistaken and comical.
[1] https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard... [2] https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/829753752/small-town-hospital...
Why choose the exurbs where you pay a premium to drive long distances and live far away from opportunity and medical care? Plus, exurbs were some of the hardest hit during the '08 recession [1].
> But underlying today’s exurban fervor is an uncomfortable truth: The reason that homes in these communities are so affordable is that these areas were among the hardest-hit by the housing crisis and recession, and prices have only recently recovered.
Recessions are very difficult to predict. Maybe it will be some time before a reckoning in the exurbs comes due again.
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-can-be-risky-to-buy-a-h...