Why are we doing it? The same reason we don’t try to eat a year’s worth of meals in one day: we simply couldn’t handle it. The modelling and current experience indicate that hospitals would be overwhelmed relatively quickly. The only real argument against that is if natural herd immunity has already been achieved; seems unlikely at this stage, but we’ll know either way once credible seroprevalence studies are completed.

A “lockdown” is a Fabian (or “rope-a-dope”) strategy: we avoid getting our assess kicked until the balance of power shifts in our favor, at which point we stage a massively devastating counterattack. In the context of COVID-19, that means safe and effective treatments, and/or universal vaccination.

“Getting our wallops” upfront would likely involve a severe economic contraction, as millions of people are removed from economic activity by illness, death, and ultimately fear of the two. Even Sweden is projected to suffer a severe economic contraction, partly due to the global trading conditions and the openness of their economy, but also partly because fear of COVID-19 is sapping domestic demand.