Explosion at Japanese nuclear plant, fuel may be melting - Officials
www3.nhk.or.jp
www3.nhk.or.jp
To the contrary, however, somebody was quoted that the explosion was the containment building for reactor vessel 1. If that is the case it would pretty much be the worst case scenario for both Japan and the future of nuclear power.
Authorities still investigating, stay calm, 'it depends on the circumstances', etc.
Several reporters asked if a 10km evacuation radius was sufficient, and the reply was '10km is what we decided'.
This looks like an unmitigated disaster in the making.
- govt. press conference, next update in 20-30 minutes. Local time in Japan is 5:37pm / 1735.
Most recent reports from power company - several hours out of date right now but still informative:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031219-e....
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031220-e....
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/index-e.htm...
Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency - English, also out of date
According to the book Physics for Future Presidents, you can calculate the odds of getting cancer from radiation by dividing the exposure by 2500 rems. 100 millirem gives you a 1 in 25,000 chance of developing cancer. Or to put it another way, your chance of getting cancer has gone from 20 percent to 20.004 percent.
The average American is exposed to 200 millirems of radiation each year from natural sources.
Of course it's not over yet and could get worse.
It would take 1000 hours of exposure at this level to cause health effects. [2]
[1] http://twitter.com/martyn_williams/status/46490355461406720
Not a panic situation yet, according to NISA.
Unfortunately, that's all we're going to hear from some corners of the nuclear debate, regardless of the facts.
At this point of history we NEED power and there are only two power sources with high enough availability and low enough cost. It's either thermo plants or nuclear plants. Everything else wont cut it. And turning off the lights won't do a shit to alleviate possible lack of energy if we stop using nuclear.
Your PC ain't consuming that much power, we need power for industry. So if nuclear power was to be turned off immediately we'd have some shit on our hands. People without food, work,...
Don't talk silly.
The fact is that some countries use nuclear power a lot, some other almost not, and that nuclear power only produces a minor part of the world electricity and energy. Probably a part we could gain back by investing in efficiency.
See this table: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/nshare.html
If you see this is practically a list of major industrialized countries.
Two of the biggest (China and India) countries that will grow their energy needs tremendously are going to rely on nuclear power massively in the future.
EDIT: Darn, I apologize :).
To your precedent point about computers and home electricity consumption: most energy actually goes into heating/cooling, that's where passive improvements can do most - better isolation, passive air cooling etc. They are huge possible gains with that. And implementing these improvements makes local small companies thrive, rather than multinational energy companies.
I'm pretty certain that heavy industry is helluva big consumer.
Regarding home cooling and heating - I would expect that at least heating is primarily done via other means not electricity. Cooling may be a bigger problem, especially in the most developed countries.
In any case I agree with you that we need to make our housing more energy efficient. And there are a lot of ways to do it, once we realize that concrete bricks might be fast and cheap to produce but beyond that not quite the best option.
I think I provided more link that most of the people contradicting me here. You are one the few providing links.
Yes you're right: note than electricity is a subset of energy, so the part of nuclear in the total energy produced is even smaller. Think of transport. Electricity heating is strong where nuclear is strong, take France. So I think both are related, but your point is still valid.
BTW there is currently around as much renewable energy than nuclear worldwide.
I know, its not an exact paraphrasing but the intent it still there. For one thing, the Japanese are not the super awesome technology supergiants that the common wisdom from the 1980's in the US makes them out to be. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. are all technologically equivalent. Its more of a matter of how much certain tech is spread out. When it comes to stuff like nuclear plants, we're all basically the same.
Gotta give 'em a break. Japan, as far as I know, has not had many accidents. We've had a number of them including Three Mile. When something the size of a continental plate snaps with enough power to shift the speed of the planet and a country's position on the globe by over 10 feet, there's not a lot of blame that can be put if it happens near a nuclear reactor.
Except nuclear power is not the safest form of energy. Not by a long shot.
What's the worst that could happen if an earthquake or a terrorist strike devastated a solar array or a wind farm?
Apart from cutting off the power supply, nothing much.
Compare that to a meltdown at a nuclear power plant. Or the nuclear proliferation risk caused by the theft of fissile material. Not to mention the hazards posed by nuclear waste.
As a preliminary indicator of my findings, I've gathered start-up dates (and shut-down dates for reactors that are no longer operational) for the 12 reactors in countries that start with "A", yielding some 322 reactor-years of operation. If 12 of the 500-ish civilian, non-experimental reactors, including decommissioned, in the world have a combined 322 reactor-years of criticality, let's guesstimate that there's been something on the order of 12000 reactor-years of criticality globally, across all non-experimental, non-military reactors.
In that time, there have been 27 civilian nuclear "accidents" (defined as damage to persons or property directly attributable to something Going Wrong at a reactor), and 8 -- count them, eight -- "incidents" (defined as something Going Wrong at a reactor, but not causing damage to persons or property outside the plant, itself). (Again, this data is from Wikipedia, so its accuracy is open to debate.)
Given the choice between one "accident" every 500-odd reactor-years (again, take that number with a cup of salt), and continually pumping ten gigatons of just CO2 into the atmosphere every year -- and that just from coal-burning power plants -- I know which I'd prefer.
That said, I agree with you on one point: we damn well should be investing massively more than we are into "green" energy technology. Much of that is unproven, and often has its own set of ecological consequences. Even leaving that aside, the best estimates say it will be decades, at least, before any of it can even start to supplant current energy sources.
What, exactly, should we do in the interim?
(EDIT: math is hard past 0300.)
This is where your argument falls apart. What other energy sources are there?
Let's see... burning fossil fuels is not only environmentally unsustainable but also, as part of its regular operation, releases more radioactive material into the atmosphere than nuclear power plants.
Solar? Workable on small scale, physically impossible to provide the majority of humanity's energy needs. Same goes for tidal, wind, and hydro.
Geothermal? Ditto - only possible in very selective environments, zero chance of being able to provide significant power generation outside of very limited circumstances.
There simply isn't a better technology out there right now. Until fusion comes along, nuclear is the best we've got. Nobody here is claiming it isn't without its risks, but it sure beats the pants off of what we're doing right now.
Even if we completely ignore the environmental angle, the social angle, and the economic angle, and consider these choices purely on how much radiation exposure they will subject people to, nuclear still wins. That's how far apart these options are. You are choosing between an extremely low chance of being exposed to a potentially damaging dose of radiation... or a guarantee of breathing down radiogenic material for your entire lifetime.
Anti-nuclear paranoia has been one of the most insidious and evil things to infect our collective consciousness in the past decades. It has enforced a continued and growing reliance on depleting fossil fuels, which has not only damaged the environment via greenhouse gas emissions, but pumped gigatons of radioactive material into the atmosphere to be inhaled by everyone. It has caused wars and famine and anti-science paranoia (did you know that the MRI was first called the NMRI? Guess why they had to rename it?).
But this >Solar? Workable on small scale, physically impossible to provide the majority of humanity's energy needs. is wrong. Efficient use of all sustainable earth's solar input is a hard engineering problem (how best to stick satellites in space and then efficiently radiate back to base stations) but not impossible and would compete with anything Fusion (yes fusion) could produce. The world's current usage is estimated at 1.6 x 10^13/yr watts while 5.2 x 10^16 watts (30% of the sun's constant input to us) is completely reflected and never used by Earth.
And the end game in some far flung future would be solar taken straight from the sun. The Kardashev scale is a probably not useful but nonetheless interesting take on this.
You may also look at that http://energypriorities.com/entries/2010/12/renewables_nucle...
For a very readable analysis with a good amount of rigor, I highly recommend the book Sustainable Energy - without the hot air by a professor of physics at the University of Cambridge, available free here: http://www.withouthotair.com/
Coal ash produced by coal power plants actually release more radioactive waste than the equivalent power generated via nuclear. Not only that, nuclear waste is highly controlled and the general population has no contact with it save extremely rare catastrophes - compare with pumping this ash into the atmosphere. Not to mention that inhaling radioactive material is orders of magnitude more dangerous than physical contact.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is...
Nuclear energy isn't perfect - but it's a hell of a lot better than anything else we've got.
Nuclear energy is like commercial airlines. Its a very safe kind of power, but sometimes there are accidents. Its unavoidable.
More to your point, saying that a 747 hitting a cooling tower is a reason to abandon nuclear power is asinine. I the entire 100+ years of human flight, there have been exactly TWO instances of commercial planes hitting large human structures, and they both happened within a few minutes of each other in New York.
To your other point, OF COURSE ENGINEERS THOUGHT ABOUT EARTHQUAKES. They're freaking NUCLEAR PLANTS. They don't build these things on fucking fault lines and then say "oops". They aren't franchise McDonald's that take 3 weeks to build and then ask if you want fries with your uranium.
Any plant takes years, if not a decade in some cases, of zoning and study before they move a bull dozer onto a site. This earthquake SHIFTED THE ENTIRE PLANET. Its quite within the realm of being ok that a 40+ year old nuclear plant isn't handling being shaken by that kind of force very well.
In terms of human cost (lives lost, injury, &c), plane crashes are far, far worse. All but the most egregious damage from radiation can be mitigated, if not prevented outright. If you're on a plane that's going down, or in the thing it's going to hit when it does, there's precisely fuck-all you can do about it.
Of course they are risks, but if you look at the Rasmussen report, it tells a meltdown is likely happen all 20000 years per reactor. We have around 430 reactors over the world, so this event should happen every 46 years. It seems that this calculation is optimistic at best (if you don't take all the partial meltdowns into account) https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Nuclear_meltd.... So I think we might need to reconsider nuclear energy - at least have a public debate on that topic.
Also, using capitals don't serve your argument.
Yes, sometimes other things happen, and the damage goes beyond the core. That's deeply unfortunate, and I feel for the people affected. But "melt down" is one of those loaded terms like "death tax" -- it serves more to create an image of unimaginable dire consequence in the lay mind than support informed debate.
Short of a breakthrough on fusion or something else exotic, nuclear power with modern designs is by far the best hope for decreasing our dependence on fossil fuels, and only with reprocessing (also unpopular) could it bear the burden for very long while being economical. It's a tragedy that this will be used as an example for why it should be locked away in a closet in the coming years. Believing that efficiency and saving can solve our energy problems is pretty naive, and taking away from the debate of the matter at hand.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_38.html venting halted
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tbstv civilians instructed on radiation protection procedures - seal buildings, do not consume food or water, emergency situation now exists
TEPCO updates - but pre-explosion
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031222-e....
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031221-e....
Helpful English translation feed, non-sensational: http://yokosonews.com/live