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I have yet to use a service with this pattern that requires you to click an "Alright, start charging me $15/mo" button once their free trial expires. That would obviously be the most user-friendly thing to do.

So, without that step, you can't say "has nothing to do with hoping people forget to cancel."

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As someone who as implemented similar CC blockers before: people who forget to cancel leave after one month, leave a bad reviews which affect future growth, and make churn numbers bad. I do not want many of those people, and will both send multiple reminders that they will be charged and refund them no questions asked.

But for any business that requires some amount of human support for users, it can be much easier to convert 15 out of 100 signups than out of 1000.

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