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ruminasean

I suspect 9 months from the lockdown months will see a surge in births....

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Not for any couples that already have a kid.

amen, brother

This is snark that will be upvoted but not borne out by statistics.

I suspect you're wrong. Economic uncertainty hammers birthrates, and this pandemic has been the ultimate demonstration of uncertainty: in the space of a few weeks, we went from a humming economy to 20% unemployment. It's a brutal reminder that in the contemporary economy you can have the chair kicked out from under you at any second, and that's not conducive to having children.

There also seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence that people are having way less sex right now, for what that's worth.

> It's a brutal reminder that in the contemporary economy you can have the chair kicked out from under you at any second

This is how I’ve felt my entire career. There are no guarantees for future success, but family planning requires an incredible amount of stability to pull off responsibly.

I'm not sure about that, if you are waiting for everything to line up perfectly then you may never be satisfied.

There’s a certain minimum people should have though, like a stable residence such as house, which is a stretch for many, many young people.

I briefly looked for numbers around the Spanish flu but couldn't find any.

My gut says you will see a mini-boom though. A lot of dogs are getting adopted right now, and adopting a dog is a gateway drug to children for a lot of couples. Would be interesting to see how many kids are "happy accidents" vs intentional though. Oh, I just looked it up and one article says 45% in the US... yeesh.

The chart in the article shows a dip around the time of the Spanish flu and an over-correction a few years later. But it's probably impossible to isolate the impact of flu vs WWI.

Could definitely see an increase in accidents, but I really doubt that there will be an increase in planned births at least in the short term. Lots of economic uncertainty + general fear of going to the hospital.

With the advent of IUDs, I would be surprised to see many “accidents” anymore. No one in my social circles has accidentally had a kid.

On the contrary, my expectation is that it will be divorces that surge after the lockdown.

IMHO both will happen.

Which is not directly related to whether or not there is a baby boom.

That would be kind of my intuition as well, but apparently a few surveys have shown that people were so depressed by the quarantine that they stopped... being intimate.

That lasted about 1 week in my household.

I hoped so, but Google trends for things like "pregnancy test" should show an uptick then, and they do not. (Ignore the uptick in early april that happens every year because of april fools)

Or divorce filings.

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