Fukushima is a triumph for nuke power: Build more reactors now
theregister.co.uk
theregister.co.uk
The main information that concerns me right now is that there appears to be a consistent radiation leak of 400 mSv/h at the plant. While not Chernobyl by any measure, this is quite a bit of radiation, considering one's yearly dose limit is 1 mSv total.
This seems to contradict the extremely optimisitc reports that all is well, under control, and that no significant radiation leak has occurred.
[edit] One thing that optimistic reports consistently fail to address is the situation with the spent fuel pools. While not capable of melting down, from what I've read the pools are rapidly boiling dry and plant workers are struggling to maintain cooling on them. Left to its own devices the fuel will boil out the pool, light on fire, and then you have burning nuclear waste drifting directly into the atmosphere (after all, the buildings no longer have roofs). There is some speculation that the current radiation spike at the plant is not from any reactor but rather its spent fuel containment.
In Ramsar, Iran the background radition is around 200 mSv/Y (compared to a worldwide average of 2.4 mSv/Y) and _according to wikipedia_ this "high level of radiation does not seem to have caused ill effects on the residents of the area".
Call me confused.
Is the 1 mSv/Y total one of those made-up safety guidelines?
So no, if you got blasted with 10 mSv all at once you shouldn't expect to vomit blood or fall over dead, but it's still a sizable amount of radiation.
Also, 400 mSv/h is 3,504,000 mSv/Y (aka 3504 Sv/Y, aka 17,000 times the radiation output in Ramsar, Iran). Of course, one doesn't expect this radiation leak to last for a whole year, but the dose rate does matter. Sucking in 400 mSv over an hour is many, many times worse than getting it over a matter of years or decades.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#Symptom_Benchmarks [2] http://www.boingboing.net/2011/03/14/radiation-dose-and-r.ht...
Even if at 0.2 Sv/d none of that happens, you still have a very actual, massively increased risk of cancer and genetic defects in future children. To declare "no health issues", you most definitely want to stay several orders of magnitude below that
Scientists suspect that it's wrong though. We have DNA repair mechanisms that may catch many errors.
The wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-threshold_model) is pretty good.
The researcher involved proposed a radiation hormesis model, in which the body adapts to the destructive effects of radiation by upgrading its self-repair response. US regulatory groups adhere to a linear no-threshold model in which all radiation, regardless of how weak it may be, leads to cumulative damage. It's not a resolved issue however. The French Academy of Sciences & National Academy of Medicine, for one, cited the study linked below in an argument against the LNT model.
Well you could see this as a calm article to balance those with cries of the nuclear angel because lets face it, they sure are making something of this.
Where one side is "fire! brimstone! death!" this side is "lalalalala NO PROBLEMS KEEP CALM CARRY ON". Both are unnecessary, unproductive, and dogmatic.
This isn't a "(D) say -10, (R) says 10, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle" situation. This is engineering and reality. If the worst "nuclear" injury that has occurred is a dose equivalent to a year of background radiation and another of 1/10th of a year, the right answer is that nothing resembling disaster has happened, heck nothing you could even notice without sensitive instruments has happened, and it's not an "extreme" to say so if it's true.
Applying the political template to the story is immediately a fail, at least in terms of understanding the truth.
If there are no further blasts or fires I think things will be fine, but I don't know how much more damage the facility can take. Some of my friends and coworkers are evacuating Tokyo and I'm not sure they don't have the right idea...
Even just measuring that level at the plant is alarming, though it currently poses little threat to the public. It does raise the question of whether or not they have it under as much control as we'd hope.
The hysteria over this is caused by the anti-nuclear people and groups trying to use this as a case against nuclear power, blowing everything out of proportion before any facts are known.
I think a few articles calling for calm balances the shrieking cries of "meltdown imminent".
Nuclear power produces waste that is dangerous for thousands of years. How can anyone say, with a straight face, that they have a plan for that? All of us will be dead and every government in the world will have changed. Our current languages won't be spoken anymore. The location of the waste deposits will likely be forgotten. There is absolutely no way to predict what will happen to the waste, and it seems awfully selfish to foist that kind of problem on people in the future to solve our very short-term energy needs.
If there is a form of nuclear power that completely expends its fuel to the point where its demonstrably not dangerous TODAY, or if we can launch the waste into the sun, I'm all for it. But lets not pretend we can control the damage from things that will persist for thousands of years after we're dead.
Apples and oranges.
Although there is a lot more net radiation coming from all the fly ash we produce that there is from our nuclear reactors, the EPA doesn't bother to treat fly ash as hazardous waste, so most people don't think it's scary. This means we already have a bunch of radioactive waste dumped into our landfills without much oversight at all.
While nuclear waste is very dangerous, there isn't a whole lot of it, and it's quite safe when it's stored properly in a radiation-sealed container. It doesn't end up in our landfills, or our air supply. It's a point source of pollution, which makes it much easier to take care of, and it is much nicer to leave future generations some concentrated, shielded radioactive waste in remote areas than to leave them tons of low-level waste in their water supply.
I'm an advocate of solar energy, and nuclear power is a hell of a lot less safe than I'd like. But as long as we're burning coal, we should be worried more about the risks of that, even though they may be less scary-seeming, because they truly are more dangerous.
I don't understand how someone can make such a bold denouncement about something as crucial the system that keeps us alive...
Much of the hardcore environmental movement is using it as a substitute for religion, except in an even more insane way.
There were many provisions for crop failure, including crop variety, raising animals, preserving food, fishing and trading with luckier regions. Like today.
Pro-agrarian looking to set the record straight. I'm also in favor of nuclear power!
But you are right about Three-Mile Island.
I myself thought just that until recently after investigating it.
What makes nuclear power unsafe is human error more than technical failure. That's the aspect the naive technocrats (like the guy who wrote this article) always ignore.
"But other reputable scientists researching the most radiation-contaminated areas of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are not convinced. The International Agency for Research on Cancer, another UN agency, predicts 16,000 deaths from Chernobyl; an assessment by the Russian academy of sciences says there have been 60,000 deaths so far in Russia and an estimated 140,000 in Ukraine and Belarus.
Meanwhile, the Belarus national academy of sciences estimates 93,000 deaths so far and 270,000 cancers, and the Ukrainian national commission for radiation protection calculates 500,000 deaths so far."
"Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400–72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000–59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million cancer cases are expected from other causes. Although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, they provide an indication of the order of magnitude of the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. It is unlikely that the cancer burden from the largest radiological accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics. Indeed, results of analyses of time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Europe do not, at present, indicate any increase in cancer rates—other than of thyroid cancer in the most contaminated regions—that can be clearly attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident."
He's not right about TMI, either. The results of TMI are debated to this day with some studies claiming minimal or no adverse health affects and some studies claiming significant adverse health affects.
NYT, Guardian, Spiegel, Mother Jones, The Atlantic (every online publication there is), every news TV channel (except Al Jazeera). Greenpeace are all over the place with their campaigning.
The hysteria isn't imminent - it's happening right now. If people don't fight the campaign to stop nuclear energy, the factoids are going to dominate the discourse in many years to come.
In a way, I see this event as an opportunity. It's just been demonstrated that Nuclear Energy is safe enough (at least, that's how I see things) but I still believe we deserve greener energies.
I don't mean to be rude, but this isn't a playground. Solar power will not get a complex if nuclear is chosen instead. Our way of life depends on energy, and just hoping other sources will work out seems naive at best.
I think we'll run out of economically extractable ore deposits of nuclear fuels a little before Sol goes supernova. Perhaps that's it.
Also, unless he edited, he said that Nuclear was "safe enough" not that it was the best option. Even if it were the best primary option I wouldn't want to rely on it exclusively; personally I consider that "renewable" sources are better. Fusion would appear to be the best if we can get it to work effectively but I'd still look to diversify to some extent.
I don't think it's fair to characterize the opposition's arguments so flippantly (as "factoids"). I'm far from an opponent of nuclear energy, but there are a lot of damned good reasons to be contemplative about a system where one bad day can injure thousands of people, and simultaneously make thousands of square miles of land unfit for human habitation for hundreds of years.
We (humans) seem to have a remarkably bad ability to correctly estimate the likelihood of "improbable" events. When that unfortunate trait crosses with the potential for out-sized, long-term impacts on the environment, it's right to be wary. It isn't totally irrational to argue that an extremely conservative position on risk is appropriate in that situation.
Lying for the sake of truth is a bad idea.
As it stands, a meltdown is a definite possibility (not necessarily probable.) Perhaps a better stratergy would be to say "It might meltdown. In which case the reactor will be ruined, but no radioactivity will be released. Or the primary vessel might be damaged, in which case this would be a Chenobyl style disaster, except we have already evacuated the area as a precaution, so the estimated death toll would be 10 (or 100 or whatever.)"
I'd say people fear what they don't understand; having lots of people, especially scientists and politicians, say "there's nothing to worry about" only increases peoples' worry – especially when bits of the plant keep exploding.
This isn't lying, it's accurate according to the information that we have acquired over the last 60 years on the use of nuclear technology. Should these predictions turn out to be incorrect then the information we have needs to be updated. I'm hoping it turns out well, there are of course no guarantees but the chances of things going even further south are low.
It's an ongoing meltdown.
Even just as a matter of rhetoric and persuasion, I think trying to argue that Chernobyl wasn't all that bad isn't the route you want to go in reassuring people.
I realise The Register may have published the story before the relevant Japanese authorities abandoned their face-saving pretence that there weren't going to be any further problems, but that doesn't mean this kind of denialism masquerading as scientific counterargument deserves any more credence than the doomsday prophecies spreading elsewhere. Particularly when it's written by a layman masquerading as an authority whose last article was entitled "Balanced, neutral journalism is RUBBISH and that's a FACT" :-)
Fukushima is very different but I agree with others that we should wait at least a couple of weeks till we make any conclusions
Speaking of jumping to conclusions: Germany just started to shut down 7 nuclear power plants because of Fukushima...
Seriously, study after study by various international organisations have come to the same conclusion.
See these links for the reports.
Of course other power sources pollute the environment, too, but they can be improved as well, for example by installing better filters.
There are still areas in Germany were wild pigs have to be tested for radioactivity, as some of them are too fond of radioactive mushrooms.
(lang=de: http://www.zeit.de/2010/46/U-Strahlende-Wildschweine?page=al... )
One could obviously argue about the term "much impact". Having cancer ia a pretty bad experience even if you survive. Same with abandoning your hometown etc.
Nevertheless the outcome of Chernobyl seems to be far less dramatic than most people believe. At least if this study by Greenpeace is wrong (estimating almost 100,000 deaths): http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/che...
I wonder how you can claim that when, depending on who you ask, the figure varies between 50, 50000 and "hundreds of thousands".
The figures you cite are from IAEA, which arguably is quite a biased source. Let's also not forget that it's very difficult to track and correlate the health of >600k people over 20+ years - even if you try to do it in best honesty.
As a counter-point, here's a study[1] that claims ~1 million deaths and according to wikipedia: "draws on previously classified post-Soviet records and reports by Eastern European scientists and medical experts that have largely been ignored by the IAEA and UNSCEAR".
I haven't read it, it may be fear mongering material. But then again, if really only 4050 people were affected, why is everyone making such a big deal about it?
[1] http://www.nyas.org/Publications/Annals/Detail.aspx?cid=f3f3...
They're making a big deal for 2 reasons. First it WAS a big deal. What happened is nothing to sniff at. So making a big deal over Chernobyl is no problem.
Second, the problem is that the anti-nuclear movement is trying to make people believe that it was much worse than it was, in an attempt to use irrational fear to bolster resistance against nuclear.
These are people who have no problem with lies, to them the end justifies the means, they will do anything they can, including breaking laws to stop nuclear power. I've seen this in Ireland not only with nuclear but with the building of a gas plant, a small group of radicals broke into the facility numerous times doing whatever damage they could. And this was just for gas.
Sorry, but I think you're contradicting yourself here. First you say 4050 people affected and totaling "only" 90 deaths is not a big deal (which I would agree with) - and now you say the opposite?
If it was commonly agreed that the number of casualties was that low then I really don't get why even the pro-nuclear parties refer to it as the dramatic event that is to be avoided at all costs. Your average earthquake affects and kills more people than that...
Second, the problem is that the anti-nuclear movement [...] in an attempt to use irrational fear to bolster resistance against nuclear
I keep hearing that, but I'm really wondering what are the motivations here?
Yes, there are some environmental nut-jobs who will argue for the sake of it, but those are usually easy to spot. However, on top of that there is also a non-negligible number of more or less credible scientists and first-hand witnesses (doctors, nurses) who question the figure of ~4000 affected. When I see an interview with a nurse on TV who reports about entire villages in the area dying out because they can't make children without birth-defects, then I can't help but ask: Why should she make this up? Who is paying her to tell us lies?
And then, on the other side of the spectrum, we have a multi-billion dollar industry and entire countries depending on the perception that nuke plants are "safe enough".
I'm not claiming to have the definite answer. I just don't understand where people like you are taking their confidence from.
I get my confidence from my understanding of nuclear energy. I'm not a nuclear scientist, but if your even remotely technically inclined(or just make an effort to understand) the basics are not hard to learn.
Most people think it's beyond their ability to understand how nuclear works so they don't even try, it might as well be black magic to them. It's then really easy to scare them with nuclear horror stories, and no amount of facts can undo that because they haven't got the fundamentals to understand those facts.
Did you know that in 1957 there was a fire in a military nuclear reactor in the UK burning for 2 days before it was shut down? Much of this burned nuclear material was passing almost freely into the atmosphere with not a single dangerous dose of radiation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windscale_fire
Or in another accident in 1961 three operators were killed(not by radiation), one of which was stuck to the ceiling with debris from the initial explosion. The rescue team used meat hooks on sticks to retrieve the body(in parts), being able to spend less than 57 seconds in the area. The bodies were so radioactive that they had to be berried in lead caskets.
Oh, I think I do have a basic grasp.
However, I'm not sure how your two stories relate to either Chernobyl or a potential meltdown in Japan at all.
Are you trying to suggest that nuke plants are inherently harmless, because even fires can burn in them for 2 days without anything bad happening?
I guess it boils down to that I have a different understanding of the risks of nuclear plants - physics aside. People like you (sorry for generalizing) repeatedly claim that a meltdown is a normal and planned failure-mode. The core melts, the containment catches the radioactive blob, it cools down, all is well.
This sounds nice in theory. My problem is that it doesn't jibe at all with what we hear from japan these days. It doesn't sound like they're following a boring disaster-plan. It sounds more like they're pretty much in panic-mode. But perhaps this is just the media-spin, we'll know in a few weeks...
100% pure green hysteria. ~10.000 died because of the tsunami. Who died because of Fukushima? None so far.
(Though I agree that shutting down power plants in Germany right now is illogical.)
There are ways to achieve a mean world GDP, or at least a standard of living similar to ours at a much lower rate of single-use resource consumption, but we're at a local optima. Civilization is a greedy search algorithm.
All else being equal, I wouldn't mind moving close to a nuclear plant. The thing is, power plants (in general) are built in less hospitable places. So it's never "equal" to begin with.
I mean, this earthquake has already killed thousands (and there will be more earthquakes in the futures). The power plant? I think a few have died from the hydrogen explosions, but none from radiation poisoning.
So the measures being taken are in fact neither hasty nor unplanned.
Not because of Fukushima, but pending elections..
The effects of the Chernobyl catastrophe are still being felt today—whole towns
lie abandoned, and cancer rates in people living close to the affected areas
are abnormally high
then goes on to say that But it turns out that the radioactive cloud may have a silver lining. Recent
studies suggest that the 19-mile (30-kilometer) "exclusion zone" set up around
the reactor has turned into a wildlife haven.
So basically, the accident at Chernobyl turned the area into a wildlife haven, because it was left to wild animals. If this were to mean that Chernobyl had a net positive effect, it would still contradict the author’s claim that there hasn’t been “much impact on the area around Chernobyl”.> So what Chernobyl has taught us?
> That nuclear energy is the safest source of energy currently available. The Chernobyl disaster was the worst we can imagine a nuclear power plant. In addition, Chernobyl defied every rule of safety. This property was one big scandal. But that's not all. Following the outbreak of the reactor were released into the atmosphere huge amounts of radioactive substances, which reached even to Antarctica. And what? And nothing. Killed 31 people - less cluttered than in January hall in Chorzow. Dangerously contaminated was less than a square kilometer of land.That's it!
What if we took the average number of fatalities per gigawatt-hour generated for coal and compared that to the worst-case ever scenario for nuclear, Chernobyl? Does anyone have these figures? I think we could all really use them to put this whole thing in proper perspective.
Chernobyl was the worst possible nuclear accident. It caused between 50 and 5000 early deaths. As a major industrial accident, it was only average. It pales in comparison to the 1984 Bhopal disaster http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster
It took a long time to convince myself of this, but it really is quite obvious: because of the energy density difference of ~ 1,000,000 between fission and everything else, just about everything you'd care to measure about fission is going to be at least an order of magnitude better. That's because the amount of energy we're interested in is roughly constant, so the upper bound on destruction is roughly the same, but the material flows for fission are a million times smaller.
Actually, appropriate use of fission should increase the demand for energy somewhat, and this would be a very good thing.
Just correcting an error/omission.
50 people sacrificing their lives so that anything even shittier would not happen "is safe and not dangerous"? I fail to imagine what you really find "unsafe and dangerous".
Are you suggesting that because ignorant people think something is unsafe, that means that it actually is unsafe?
> Are you suggesting that because ignorant people think something is unsafe, that means that it actually is unsafe?
Yeah, this is what I'm saying, but isn't this what web 2.0 people were calling "wisdom of the crowds"? I guess back then it sounded cool, now it's just "return to technocracy" once more.
Regarding this "wisdom of the crowds" crap, does the presence of a lynch mob indicate that someone was actually guilty? If masses of people swear by a medical treatment, does that magically mean it's not a placebo?
Crowds are dumb. The only time you want to follow the "wisdom of the crowd" is when the crowd is your marketable commodity.
We're settled, then, because this is where we disagree :) I believe in the power of the people of taking decisions for themselves (even if the decisions are dumb), while you suggest than an informed elite should have the upper hand (if I read you correctly). I could go on and on about why I believe in what I said above (maybe the fact that I grew up under an authoritarian regime), but that doesn't belong in here, and I'm pretty sure you have your good reasons for believing in what you said.
I guess history will decide.
If you're saying this is the way things ought to be, I'm not sure if I agree but I think you have a valid point about the democratic form of government.
If you're saying a dumb herd of people's panicky reactions to a scary situation actually mean nuclear power is more dangerous than other forms, you're dead wrong.
I don't think other people here understand which of these arguments you're making, either.
Reguarding this
> If you're saying a dumb herd of people's panicky reactions to a scary situation actually mean nuclear power is more dangerous than other forms, you're dead wrong.
I didn't say that people's reaction to nuclear power changes it into something "dangerous", I was only saying that if people decide not to fund nuclear development anymore (say, by not allowing their Governments to subsidize said industry) then its voice should be listened to, even if to some it may sound "dumb" or "panicky". This is why I said that if the voice of the majority isn't listened to we're back to Technocracy, i.e. a small group of informed elite taking vital decisions for the rest of us.
The reason you don't leave any serious decisions in the hands of the masses is because it leads to instability, which is the worst thing that can happen to a government.
In every form of government, you have a minority bloc which makes the most important decisions unilaterally. The remaining decisions are, depending on the visible form of government, passed on to various degrees to the public so that they may feel they are participating in the running of their country's affairs.
There is, of course, some give-and-take when a special interest group gains too much power, but those can be dealt with on a case-by-case basis.
Look at Japan, right now 10,000 people are dead from a tsunamai/earthquake double punch and you are worried about the nuclear reactor? The one person killed in the reactor was killed by a crane falling, that could have happened at any industrial complex in an earthquake. There have been a few cases of radiation exposure, but I gaurentee you there where also some guys killed in the refineries that blew up. Not to mention only a few months ago we had a dozen guys die when an oil rig blew up. You need to put it in perspective and get a sense of scale.
In a country like this, with smoking power plants nearby: http://krajina.venku.cz/exkur2a/ex2a-01a.htm
Or rather just tolerate this: http://www.vyletnik.cz/images/profily/users/1969/jaderna-ele...
(Please note that these images are very real, and we're going to need to extend either the mines or build some new nuclear plants, at least locally, in the Czech republic.)
I'm not trying to blame radiation for everything. Just pointing out it's likely that these statistics do not convey the complete picture.
These: http://streaming.tepco.co.jp/tepco_people/index-j.html
From here: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g3zel/breaking_ex...
But more to the point, there is no indication of "people sacrificing their lives" unless you count the extremely hyperbolic assumption that everybody working at the site is automatically doomed.
A day after the reddit comment the NyTimes had a front-page article on them: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html . The general tone of the article and of the people commenting on the article was that of "sacrifice", i.e. people putting their lives on the line for the benefits of the greater community.
Updated:
More about it from here (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/japan-tsunami/news/article.cfm?c_i...):
> David Richardson, a professor of epidemiology at the university of North Carolina who has studied the long-term health risks for nuclear plant workers, told the BBC those at Fukushima would receive in an hour the same amount of radiation a US nuclear worker is exposed over an entire career.
To a non-specialist like me that sounds like "sacrifice".
1. The engineers working at the plant have more options they can fall back on to prevent a major radiation leak and the chances of a major leak is pretty unlikely due to the inherit characteristics of the reactors.
2. The reactors were pushed 5x beyond spec in an extraordinary event and have performed well even though they were designed 40+ years ago. This is a testament to the safety system design and technology in the reactors.
I'm no nuclear opponent... I believe that nuclear could very well be the only safe and scalable answer to the world's energy needs - but if we can't make the economics of building safer plants work, then nuclear is a nonstarter.
Proclamations like this that everything is and will be fine are really reckless at this point. Every day it seems like we are finding out that things are much worse than we had previously been told they are, and it looks as though they are still in the process of losing - not gaining - control at Fukushima.
The problem right now is the lack of power. The pumps are run on electric power, and as soon as the earthquake came the power plant itself shut down. So now you need external power to run the pumps. The power infrastructure failed and no other power plants could power these pumps. So they switched to backup generators, which were then wiped out by a tsunami. Then they switched to batteries (which worked fine, until they ran out). Then they brought in backup generators, which failed. Now we're onto pumping seawater in.
If sea wall had been 50' high instead of 30' high (estimates), the generators would have survived and we wouldn't be hearing about this. If the batteries were more than 8 hours we probably wouldn't be hearing about this. If the external generators worked, we wouldn't be hearing about this. Those are the only mistakes.
Compare that to Gen 4 reactors being designed today - no pumps required to circulate fluid. If anything we should be building new plants because if this had happened to a Gen 4 the fluid would be cooling the reactor even without power and none of this would have been a problem.
If the problem is the lack of power, then so be it - even more of a preventable problem that wasn't properly assured against.
I'm hopeful for the Gen 4 reactors (don't know much about them, but what I've read gives me the impression that they are a significant leap in the right direction in terms of safety.) But I don't think that this particular article is right in holding Fukushima up as some shining example of nuclear safety, especially so early.
The exclusion zone is a precaution. You could be running around nude in it right now and you wouldn't get cancer.
But since you brought it up, we should stop drilling for oil, particularly sea bed drilling, while operating with lax regulatory bodies and marginal penalties for non-compliance.
"As the hot cores ceased to be cooled by the water which is used to extract power from them, control rods would have remained withdrawn and a runaway chain reaction could have ensued"
This is rubbish. The control rods in every nuclear reactor, going right back to the Chicago Pile, are fail-safe: if the power fails, they drop into the core, stopping fission. (In the case of a BWR like the Fukushima reactors, stored hydraulic pressure forces the control rods upward into the core).
Even without fission occuring though, the fuel rods continue to produce a great deal of heat through beta decay of the fission products (immediately after shutdown, heat is produced at around 7% of the operating power). This is why a meltdown can still occur, if this prodigious quantity of heat cannot be removed quickly enough.
Though the more recent developments would seem to point out that Quake + tsunami >> 1 minor radiation dose.
Lets just hope it does not get any worse.
The problem isn't that reactors are inherently unsafe, but that building new reactors without dramatically improving the underlying designs is inherently inefficient. This means that nuclear energy, when all insurance and other costs are included, does not present ANY savings over any other form of newly-built power plant.
The main cost argument in favor of nuclear power is that existing thirty-year old plants cost so little per year. This is an obvious diversionary trick. We paid off the bonds ages ago. My house is also the cheapest on the street if you don't include the mortgage.
The main argument in favor of nuclear power is that it provides reliable baseload energy, which must only be shut down once every fourteen months or so for refueling. This disaster is the proof that nuclear baseload energy is only as reliable as its safety investments and contigency planning. Fukushima is not the first plant to go silent forever.
The Fukushima disaster reminds me of what really happened to our I-35W bridge locally. Over thirty years ago, someone built bridge with gussets too thin. Over a decade ago, our state replaced its government bridge inspectors with a for-profit firm that promised it would "save money" through efficiency savings on labor. Seven years before the disaster, HNTB Corp. of Kansas City performed a bridge analysis to try to win the contract from URS. They found the under-sized gussets and demonstrated how the Minnesota Department of Transportation could use "supplemental plates" and a new "oversize gusset" to strengthen the bridge. HNTB never got the contract and improvements were never made. Later, URS had the option to either re-inspect the bridge or to brace the bridge as HNTB had suggested. They chose to re-inspect.
During court filings in the victims lawsuit, a URS bridge contractor stated in an internal e-mail that they chose not to determine the stresses on all the components in the bridge because "it was too much work."
The moral of the story is that saving money on engineering does not always save money. I could cite numerous similar examples, like the infamous Boeing 787 project that I was involved in as a Cray Inc. contractor.
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2010/2010-04-26-01.html
Secondly, the real tragedies here are the high human health costs in cancer and birth defects, the economic cost of losing twenty percent of Japan's power indefinitely, and the outrageous modern day cost of building new reactors. Given those high costs and the ten year construction times, it is unlikely that these plants will be replaced by nuclear reactors even if we wiped Japan's collective memory.
Many geeks are easily swayed by scientific talk that ignores social variables and whole cost accounting. Remember Google's early motto, "Don't be evil!"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_new_nuclear_power_...
Plus, as told in other comments, this article dates back to yesterday and recent news are less and less reassuring (e.g. the containment vessel is now broken in one reactor).
Thank you.
I agree with your desire to stop the FUD, but be careful you don't spread it yourself.
Put another way, on average driving 100 million miles is safer than flying 100 million miles (contrary to popular belief that flying is safer than driving).
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risk-01.html
You can see the fallacy of "cars are dangerous" when you compare cars to motorcycles on that chart, because most people don't ride motorcycles so the probability of death for most people is lower than for a car.
Fukushima is extraordinarily safe for everyone living in Iceland. It is far less safe for everyone living in Japan.
However, that is not going to happen, because the containment is rather vented than letting it burst.
Anyway, the carnage and tragedy _actually having struck_ in form of the earthquake and tsunami _dwarf_ even the most horrible scenario at the nuclear plants.
While there are certainly quite a few engineering victories to be claimed here, I would not call several explosions at a nuclear plant "nothing happened". Also, the earthquake did damage at least reactor 4, there are two approx. 8m² holes.
It's the difference between your house being blow away in a tornado while you are in a tornado shelter, and your tornado shelter being blown away in a tornado while you are in it. The first is bad news, but not a catastrophy. The latter is a catstrophy.