You've listed down 3 risks.
- Risk of no one watching.
- Risk of going over budget.
- Risk of actors or directors having a fall out. (Or something else occurring that makes episodes not coming out on time if at all.)
And you make a good point that thats why Netflix is trying with 1 show and not 10.
But aren't all these risks you listed further minimized by experimenting with a $10 million show than a $100 million show?
My thinking is: Netflix does not care about risk at all. If they wanted to minimize risk, they would have gone with lower priced shows. Or they would have gone with a lot more shows. The only reason they have gone after a high priced mainstream show is as a negotiation tactic. To make a stand against studios and cable companies. "Play ball with us. Because if we can't play together, we will compete together."