I am working with Start-ups since 2008 - and classic companies before that.

My chances to know beforehand what customers want is 50/50.*

So I am very humble by now. Launch super early. Get Feedback. Quantity wise and quality feedback (listen closely if you made their life any better). Iterrate and/or change path.

Yes, like flipping a coin. Sad that, quite a lot of managers have a way lower hit rate as they have an inherent ”the customer is like me and users are stupid” bias (both at the same time, so that makes them...)